A recent U.S. intelligence assessment indicates that Russia could test NATO’s resolve over the next few years with a limited attack, possibly against a Baltic state or Poland. The warning follows others made over the summer. But there is another country that may be even more likely to find itself in Russia’s crosshairs, and it has gone largely unnoticed by policymakers: Moldova — a small country in the heart of eastern Europe nestled between Romania and Ukraine. 

As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches the four-and-a-half-year mark, with no end in sight and little progress on the battlefield, the Kremlin may become increasingly desperate to seize the initiative.