Election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted Michigan’s Senate race from a toss-up rating to “Leans Democratic” as part of a series of shifting midterm election predictions favoring Democrats.

The assessment says the race now favors former public health official and progressive Democrat Abdul el Sayed in his campaign against Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. The shift toward el Sayed comes as the University of Virginia forecaster shifted 10 races toward Democrats, placing the reason for the rating changes on “the poor national environment for Republicans.”