The Republican Party has a 2028 problem it has not yet solved publicly, and every political operative in Washington knows it. Neither Vice President JD Vance nor Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the two most prominently positioned figures for the GOP presidential nomination, has demonstrated the coalition breadth to win a general election. Vance carries the ideological weight of a movement that alienated suburban voters in 2022 and 2024. Rubio brings foreign policy credentials and bilingual appeal but has never translated either into a winning presidential coalition. Facing that reality, Republican strategists have concluded that the most consequential thing they can do before a single primary vote is cast is not to build up their own candidate — it is to tear down the likely Democrat.

That Democrat is Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA). And the strategy, already visible in congressional hearings, conservative media, and coordinated messaging from Republican governors, is not subtle. It is a preemptive demolition campaign targeting California’s fiscal record — and it is working, in part, because the record itself provides substantial material.