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KERRY TO CHINA: U.S. climate envoy John Kerry is slated to travel to China on Sunday to meet with his counterpart, Xie Zhenhua.
Kerry’s stated reason for the trip is to engage in talks regarding climate change and pave the way for a successful COP 28 this late fall/winter.
The background: Talks between the U.S. and China ground to a halt following then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last August, with Chinese officials saying then that they wanted a rebuke of Pelosi before reengaging with Kerry.
In recent weeks, the relationship has thawed a bit – notably, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited China earlier this month, during which trip she called on the country to increase financing for clean energy.
Where things stood previously: Kerry had touted an agreement on cooperation with China on emissions in late 2021, but the deal lacked concrete pledges, emissions targets, or timeframes. Leader Xi Jinping subsequently seemed to dismiss the deal, saying that he wouldn’t allow the goal of reducing carbon emissions to disturb the economy and that the country must “overcome the notion of rapid success” on climate change. The government this year also approved a surge in coal power.
What to expect: Kerry, appearing before the House Foreign Affairs Oversight Subcommittee yesterday, said that a goal for the trip would be talking about a transition away from coal.
Still, even a revival of the previous deal looks like a long shot.
“I’m not going over with any concessions,” Kerry testified. “What we’re trying to do is find ways we can cooperate to actually address the crisis, because China as the world’s second-largest economy, and as the world’s largest emitter, is critical to our being able to solve this problem.”
The Chinese Communist Party-run Global Times said in a piece previewing Kerry’s visit that cooperation on climate would not be possible without concessions on other aspects of relations that have heightened tensions, such as tariffs.
Kerry also faced questioning from Republicans during the hearing about such issues, including the CCP’s treatment of the Uighur minority.
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SPEAKING OF COP28 – DISAGREEMENT IN EUROPE: Six European Union nations – Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia and Romania – are pushing back against a European Commission updated pledge indicating that the bloc will cut emissions by 57% by 2030 on the grounds that it is too ambitious, according to Bloomberg.
The draft also reportedly calls for a phase-out of all fossil fuels, saying that the energy sector will have to ditch them “well ahead” of 2050.
WIND AND SOLAR TO PRODUCE MORE THAN ONE-THIRD OF GLOBAL ENERGY BY 2030: Wind and solar energy are projected to produce more than one-third of total energy combined by 2030, according to a new report published yesterday by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), which projected “exponential” growth in both sectors by the end of the decade.
In total, wind and solar will generate roughly 33% of global power generation, RMI said, compared to around 12% generated by wind and power currently.
“The benefit of rapid renewable deployment is greater energy security and independence, plus long-term energy price deflation because this is a manufactured technology – the more you install the cheaper it gets,” Kingsmill Bond, a top RMI official, said in a statement.
Why it matters: The report shows that the COP28 goal for renewable power, which seeks to triple capacity by 2030, is in reach, so long as barriers such as grid investment, streamlined permitting, improved market structures, and greater storage are made, according to the report. Read it in full here.
BRENT ABOVE $80 ON SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS AND MACRO NEWS: Prices for global benchmark Brent crude rose to above $80 per barrel today amid recent supply disruptions in Libya and Nigeria.
Some oilfields in Libya were shutdown because of tribal protests over the kidnapping of a former minister and Shell suspended some work in Nigeria because of a leak at a terminal, according to Reuters.
Also, encouraging news about the global macroeconomy put upward pressure on prices, especially from yesterday’s OPEC report predicting that demand will pick up, especially in China. Also, multiple reports this week indicated that inflation is coming down faster in the U.S. than anticipated, meaning that fewer rate hikes are likely in store from the Federal Reserve – which would augur well for overall activities and commodities.
$20B GREEN BANK FROM IRA ANNOUNCED: The EPA announced today the terms for endowing “climate banks” with $20 billion authorized by the Inflation Reduction Act, part of the massive green spending authorized by the law meant specifically to boost poorer towns and people harmed by pollution.
The EPA said it was setting up two programs, one with $14 billion in funding and the other with $6 billion, that would in turn each set up a handful of institutions that would partner with private-sector entities to finance green projects, which could include heat pumps, electric vehicle charging stations, building upgrades, and other similar items.
EPA administrator Michael Regan said the funds “will spur private investment into clean technology projects and expand economic opportunity for communities that have been left behind, for families that want lower energy costs, and for workers who need good-paying jobs.”
The two programs add to a separate $7 billion program announced in June to boost solar power in places deemed low-income or disadvantaged.
The EPA said the deadline for applying for the program is Oct. 12.
The entities and private-sector partners that use the funds will have more discretion in financing projects than the federal government has under other provisions of the law meant to reduce emissions, such as the subsidies for electric vehicles and clean power.
The funds will also come with stipulations that a certain amount of the financing be distributed to groups identified as low-income or disadvantaged.
Regan is set to formally announce the plan with Vice President Kamala Harris at Coppin State University in Baltimore this afternoon.
LOW WATER LEVELS AGAIN THREATEN SHIPPING ON THE MISSISSIPPI: Water levels in Cairo, Illinois, between Missouri and Kentucky, where the Mississippi meets the Ohio, have dropped six feet in the past week and are expected to drop another four feet this month, Bloomberg reports, enough of a decline to force barges aground and narrow shipping lanes.
“We’re starting off this year low and pretty dry,” David Welch, a hydrologist with the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, told the publication. “We’re not seeing a lot of relief in sight.”
Similar conditions threatened shipping last year as well.
DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND: Cities in the Southwest are expected to face dangerous temperatures this weekend as the heat dome intensifies and a heat wave extends across much of the U.S.
Phoenix is likely to set a record streak of consecutive 110-degree days, as well as days with lows above 90 degrees. A new study warns that a blackout that cause the city to lose air conditioning (not likely) would kill thousands.
Las Vegas is likely to see its record-high temperature of 117 degrees matched on Sunday.
Altogether, nearly 115 million Americans are under heat alerts, from Florida to Washington.
Europe is also in the grips of a heat wave, with most Italian cities expected to see high temperatures in the upper 90s in coming days.
The Rundown
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