When midterm votes are counted on Nov. 3, few lines in the exit polls will have moved as far in 20 years as the one drawn by a four-year degree. In 2004, voters with a bachelor’s degree split evenly between Bush and Kerry, while voters without one favored Bush by 6 points. In 2024, the two groups were 27 points apart. The parties did not discover that divide. It was manufactured over the course of 60 years by the institutions that made the degree the price of admission to respectable adult life, and whichever party wins on Nov. 3 inherits it intact.
Pew has tracked voters’ party identification since 1990. In 1994, voters with a four-year degree favored Republicans by 15 points, and voters without one were split. By 2004, both groups sat within 4 points of even. In 2008, both leaned Democratic. Then they parted. By 2023, they were 19 points apart, the sign reversed from 1994. The ballots agree. In midterm exit polls, the gap was roughly zero in 2006 and 2010, 5 points in 2014, 20 in 2018, and 22 in 2022.
