The bust rate for second-round quarterbacks is high; but if the Redskins don’t draft a quarterback with the 10th overall pick, they’ll likely address it in the second round.
Is that smart? History says no. But ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay, along with others, say this is one year history can be ignored.
“You can get a good quarterback and this year’s class is an exception to the rule because there’s so much more depth than you usually see,” McShay said. “But drafting one in the second round doesn’t guarantee you of anything.”
The Redskins need a quarterback, but scouts, personnel people and analysts are divided over the best one in this group. Some say Blaine Gabbert isn’t worthy of a first-round pick. McShay says Gabbert is the only QB he’d take in the top 10. One scout says Jake Locker is his guy. Cam Newton is all over the place.
And the second-round guys may look good to one team but not others, depending on the system they run and the attributes they prize. TCU’s Andy Dalton might lack the arm strength some teams covet. But his savviness and accuracy will be desired by some. Christian Ponder has questions about his accuracy downfield, his arm strength and his health. Locker has accuracy issues. For Ryan Mallett it’s about character and athleticism.
Meanwhile, since 1998, only one quarterback picked in the second round has thrown more than 60 career touchdown passes (Drew Brees, 2001). The list of second-rounders is not impressive. However, the Redskins desperately need a young QB. My hunch is that they’ll trade back somehow, end up with Locker and add a pick in the third or fourth round.
McShay, for now, has them taking WR Julio Jones at No. 10. He wasn’t sold that Jones would be their guy ultimately, but that he was the best player available when he did his mock. And he pegged Ponder as their second-round choice. He compared Ponder to Jake Delhomme and Kevin Kolb in terms of style – both of whom are good fits in a west coast system. Of course, each system does different things and in the Redskins, there’s a value on deep arm strength.
“He has adequate arm strength and doesn’t fit every system,” McShay said. “His accuracy down the field tails off.”
If that’s the case, Ponder might not be the best fit; of course, Mike Shanahan could determine those issues stem from mechanics, which he can fix.
As for the depth of the QB class, McShay said some of it stems from this group’s experience.
“Ultimately even though you see more spread offenses and systems that don’t fit the NFL,” McShay said, “I think you have a bunch of seniors who played a lot and have been successful and you have a lot of intelligent players. Guys like Ponder and Dalton and Colin Kaepernick and Ricky Stanzi know what it takes to be successful….For so many years we had underclassmen drafted in the first couple rounds that failed and a lot of that was their inexperience.”
McShay did say that if Gabbert is somehow available at No. 10, the Redskins should take him. But be prepared to wait for him to develop.
“As much as I like Blaine, and I do think he can become maybe not an Aaron Rodgers but in that ballpark,” McShay said, “we have to takea step back from the last few years and go back to the old mentality of maybe sitting a guy for a year and developing him. He can take drops and he has the footwork, but he has to become more consistent throwing the ball downfield and there’s a learning curve coming from that system. Does he have it? Absolutely. He’s accurate enough to be a very good starting quarterback in the NFL.”
