CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa — The applause lines gave it away.
I spent a couple of days here in Iowa recently to get a sense of the center of gravity in the Republican Party. Polling suggests it’s Donald Trump; conservative talk radio suggests it’s the federal investigation into the former president’s alleged mishandling of classified documents, as revealed when the FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, his residence and private social club in Palm Beach, Florida.
What I observed during a campaign rally hosted by Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), her second annual “BBQ Bash,” just up the road at the Linn County Fairgrounds suggests both are true.
The crowd of grassroots Republicans, more than 500 strong, nodded their heads favorably and offered verbal affirmations throughout speeches, covering a range of topics, from Hinson and the collection of special guests there to bolster her reelection bid in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District: Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA); Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann, Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), and the headliner, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), a potential 2024 contender.
But by far, the biggest hosannas erupted following paeans to Trump and his accomplishments in the White House. By far, the most sustained applause during any of the speeches was generated by the amiable Grassley when he vowed to pursue investigations into Hunter Biden, President Joe Biden’s son, and root out allegations of political bias at the FBI. Interviews with Republican voters, presumably likely 2024 Iowa caucusgoers, confirmed what was plain to see, and hear.
Gary Leffler, a Republican activist who sought the GOP nomination in Iowa’s 3rd District this year, losing to state Sen. Zach Nunn, summarized Trump’s grip on the party, and its future, this way:
“Until Trump says what he’s going to do, everything’s kind of negated,” Leffler said. “When I was working down at the Iowa State Fair, they were handing out trump koozies, so I’ve got to believe Trump’s going to run.” Just to avoid being presumptuous, I asked: “Do you want Trump to mount a third presidential campaign in 2024?” Leffler’s answer: “Absolutely.”
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To be sure, there are some dissenters who constitute something of a soft underbelly of doubt about re-upping with Trump. Of course, this hesitancy is not so much about a wholesale rejection of the former president than concern another White House bid would damage the GOP and diminish the party’s chances of taking back the White House.
“I like Trump. But I think his time is passed,” Jeanne Baerg, 56, said. “I just think he really needs to step back and support the next Republican. I think there’s too many people that don’t care for his mannerisms — I think it’s going to hurt the party if he runs again.”
You’ll never guess whom Baerg is warming to. “I like DeSantis,” she said, name-checking Florida’s Republican governor. “I think if he ran, I would probably vote for him.”
Now, to the field …
Florida governor’s race. Voters in Florida’s 13th District will have to go without representation until January after Rep. Charlie Crist (D) announced he would resign from Congress on Wednesday to focus on his underdog bid to oust Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).
Crist, a former Republican who served as Florida governor from 2007 to 2011, thanked his constituents in a statement posted to Twitter, per reporting from my Washington Examiner colleague Juliegrace Brufke, saying, “These achievements start and end with you, the people — my bosses — who have guided my work in Congress since Day One.”
In 2010, Crist was running for Senate as a Republican but disaffiliated from the party ahead of the GOP primary after it became clear that now-Sen. Marco Rubio (R) was going to beat him. Crist later became a Democrat and sought to move back into the governor’s mansion but lost in the general election, in 2014, to then-governor and now-Sen. Rick Scott (R) by 1 percentage point.
Crist was elected to Congress in a swing district in 2016. His exit from the House this week might or might not improve his chances against DeSantis. At the very least, the Democrat will be able to focus full time on his gubernatorial campaign and avoid politically tough votes.
But one consequence of his resignation that is assured: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) will have one fewer vote to rely on to pass Democratic legislation, a significant development given her party is defending a single-digit majority in midterm elections.
New Hampshire Senate race. Don Bolduc, the front-runner for the Republican nomination in the Sept. 13 primary, led big in yet another poll, this one from the University of New Hampshire.
In the online panel survey of 892 likely Republican primary voters conducted Aug. 25-29, Bolduc was in front with 43%. Trailing the retired Army brigadier general with 22% was Chuck Morse, president of the New Hampshire Senate. The three other candidates in the race were in low single digits.
Bolduc is not considered a top-tier general election contender, and Republican insiders in New Hampshire say his nomination would all but assure reelection for Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) despite a favorable political atmosphere for the GOP. Even Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s consigliere in the Granite State, opposes Bolduc. This is despite the fact that Bolduc is running as a Trump-aligned candidate who enjoys strong support among the former president’s base.
Notably, Gov. Chris Sununu (R) and Trump appear to hold roughly equal sway with Republican primary voters. Thirty-six percent said they are more likely to support a Senate candidate in the primary who is backed by the former president; 35% said the same about a candidate endorsed by the governor. However, 19% said they would be less likely to support a Trump-endorsed candidate, while just 9% said the same about a Sununu-backed contender.
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2024 watch. Former Vice President Mike Pence is expanding his footprint in Iowa, host of the first nominating contest on the GOP presidential nominating calendar, with an advertising blitz by his political nonprofit organization aimed at boosting the party’s chances of unseating Rep. Cindy Axne (D) in the 3rd District.
As my colleague Kate Scanlon reported this week for the Washington Examiner, Advancing American Freedom, Pence’s 501(c)(4) organization, is running television ads in Iowa critical of her position on energy issues. “Here’s my message to congresswoman Axne,” an Iowa voter says in the spot, looking straight at the camera: “Stand up for policies that will lower gas prices and support American energy production.”
The advertising buy is part of a larger $10 million campaign AAF announced in March targeting more than a dozen House Democrats on energy issues. The group said the six-figure purchase will air on cable and digital in the 3rd District, a swing seat Republicans are targeting in midterm elections. State Sen. Zach Nunn is the GOP nominee.
“In order to set the United States back on a path of energy independence, we need Congress to support American energy production,” Pence said in a statement. The former vice president is a 2024 contender who has signaled his plans to seek the White House are not dependent on whether Trump runs or decides to stand down.
