Poland has announced a new homeland defense bill that pinpoints Russia’s imperial ambitions as a primary security challenge to NATO.
Once approved by parliament, the legislation will more than double Poland’s troop numbers from 110,000 to 250,000 soldiers, together with 50,000 reservists. Given its history of foreign invasions, Poland takes security seriously. The United States should be grateful for that.
In Europe, the most vital allies are those that directly recognize and resist aggression from a neo-imperial Russia. The standout NATO members include Poland, Romania, and the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Unfortunately, policymakers often simplistically lump Poland together with Hungary as “illiberal” states that are no longer reliable allies, thus ignoring the glaring differences between Warsaw and Budapest in dealing with an expansionist Russia.
In three key domains — military, diplomacy, and energy — Warsaw actively resists Moscow’s subversion while Budapest succumbs to it.
As Russia threatens Ukraine’s borders and pushes Belarus to become a launching pad for assaults against NATO, Poland has responded by increasing its spending to defend NATO’s eastern flank. Poland has already exceeded NATO guidelines by apportioning over 2.3% of its GDP on defense, with at least 20% of that amount dedicated to major military modernization. It plans to establish an Armed Forces Support Fund that would significantly raise defense spending and enable further purchases of military equipment from the U.S.
Warsaw has already bought Patriot air defense systems and 32 F-35 fighter jets. Poland also jointly hosts NATO’s Multinational Corps and Division North East Headquarters and the forward headquarters of the U.S. Army’s V Corps. In stark contrast, Hungary does not consider itself a frontline NATO state, fails to reach NATO defense spending targets, and has limited military links with the U.S.
On the diplomatic front, Poland exhibits enduring pro-Americanism regardless of who is in the White House. The Hungarian government seems more ideologically tied to particular personalities and banked on Trump in the 2020 elections. More importantly, Poland is active on an international level in condemning Russia’s ongoing attacks on Ukraine, its shadow war against Western governments, and its subversion of Western institutions. Budapest remains largely silent on Moscow’s expansionism, as Prime Minister Viktor Orban has voiced his ideological affinity and even admiration for Vladimir Putin.
Russian and Chinese corruption is also a factor in Hungary. Mike Pompeo’s State Department first signaled that corruption in Hungary creates inroads for Russian and Chinese influence that undermines Western security. Since then, the problem has escalated, as Budapest has become even more embedded with the Kremlin. In marked contrast, any corruption scandals in Poland involving Russia would guarantee the collapse of the government.
On the energy front, while Poland has steadily diversified its sources and energy mix, Hungary is intensifying its dependence on Russia. Budapest’s energy deals with Moscow are crucial for the ruling Fidesz party. They help guarantee low energy prices for households in return for Budapest’s political compliance with Moscow. Russia is Hungary’s dominant supplier of both natural gas and nuclear power, which accounts for about half of its energy mix. This figure is expected to grow to 60% by 2030. Such deals help Putin to ensure Budapest’s neutrality on the international arena. In addition, Fidesz’s actions to control the judiciary and mass media create internal problems for the EU and are a bonus for Moscow in its campaign to fracture Europe.
Despite democratic reversals under the incumbent governments, neither Poland nor Hungary are authoritarian states like Russia. While Putin’s Kremlin has stifled dissent and opposition, both Poland and Hungary have authentic political pluralism, credible opposition parties that could win the next elections, and vibrant civic societies that were instrumental in overthrowing communism.
It remains to be seen whether a new Hungarian government without the current ruling Fidesz party will curtail corrupt links with Moscow and Beijing, diversify its energy sources, and become a more reliable NATO ally. In the case of Poland, whoever wins the next elections, there is no doubt that Warsaw will remain a staunch U.S. ally.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book, Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks, is co-authored with Margarita Assenova. His upcoming book is titled Failed State: Planning for Russia’s Rupture.
