Donald Trump is losing his grip on Arizona with just three weeks to go until Election Day.
The southwest, desert oasis is a perennial red state that last voted Democrat for president in 1996, and other than that not since 1948.
But Hillary Clinton has pulled ahead in some public and private polling, and Republican operatives based in Arizona concede that her campaign’s decision to invest more than $2 million there down the stretch is a smart move that could pay off.
The Clinton campaign on Monday announced that it would upgrade its small presence on Phoenix television to a broad statewide advertising buy that includes television, direct mail and digital.
If that isn’t evidence enough of the Clinton campaign’s seriousness, it also revealed that First Lady Michelle Obama, perhaps its best surrogate, would visit Phoenix on Thursday to stump for the nominee.
Clinton also could visit Arizona in the coming days, sources tell the Washington Examiner.
“Donald Trump’s hateful rhetoric and deeply disrespectful remarks about Sen. John McCain have made Arizona more competitive. This is a state that would really foreclose a path for Donald Trump to win the White House,” Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook told reporters Monday morning during a conference call.
Republicans don’t expect Clinton’s play for Arizona to diminish Sen. John McCain’s re-election chances. However, there is some concern that a victory by the Democratic nominee could help her party pick up seats in state legislature. Early voting began there last Wednesday.
The race for Arizona’s 11 votes in the Electoral College is statistically tied. Trump led 41 percent to 40 percent in the most recent RealClearPolitics average. In a poll conducted Friday by a Republican firm based in the state, Clinton held a narrow lead of 38.5 percent to 36.5 percent.
The Clinton campaign has toyed with expanding into Arizona for months, given Trump’s unusually weak numbers there despite multiple campaign visits by the Republican nominee and his running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence.
The campaign initially helped fund voter turnout operations for the Arizona Democratic Party, and bought a small level of advertising.
But that was about it until this week, when it confirmed the major $2 million investment — especially sizable given there are only 21 days left in the campaign. In addition to the first lady, the campaign also is sending for visits Clinton’s daughter, Chelsea Clinton, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.
At this late date, time is among the most valuable commodities a campaign has, so sending top surrogates like Obama and Sanders amounts to a major commitment beyond the financial investment. Some Republicans believe it make sense.
“They expect to win — likely pushing for 46ish percent and a win with a plurality, which is looking more and more likely,” said a GOP strategist who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly about the race.
That’s exactly how Democrats managed to win the state in 1996, when President Bill Clinton finished first in a three person race, winning with 46.5 percent, to GOP nominee Bob Dole’s 44.3 percent.
Democrats have discussed making a play for Arizona in recent presidential elections.
The state has a conservative lean but has a significant Hispanic population and regularly elects Democrats to swing congressional districts, the governor’s mansion and other statewide offices.
But Democrats recently didn’t feel confident enough about the state in presidential races to devote significant resources there or shift their focus from the traditional battlegrounds.
Their hesitance was supported by the results. The previous three GOP nominees won Arizona with, on average, 54 percent of the vote. But this year, despite Clinton’s own weaknesses, GOP insiders in Arizona have been worried.
Trump’s hardline position on illegal immigration has the potential to motivate higher-than-usual turnout among Hispanics. Meanwhile, he’s been a turnoff to white suburban moderates.
The New York businessman’s slide in the polls this month, and the Clinton campaign’s increasing confidence about its position across the country on the eve of the third and final presidential debate, appeared among the reasons it took the desert plunge.
The Clinton campaign announced additional expansions Monday into states not considered traditional battlegrounds that lean Republican, partly to help down-ballot Democrats, including in Indiana, Missouri and Nebraska.
Nebraska awards electoral votes per each congressional district, and Clinton is competing for the moderate second district in the eastern part of the state. Her campaign also announced more money for Maine, which also awards electoral votes per congressional district.
Maine is a Democratic-leaning state, but Trump has shown competitiveness in the second district. Clinton is hoping the additional funds help her lock it down.
T. Becket Adams contributed to this report
