NDAA FOCUS SHIFTS TO SENATE: Members of Congress have a perennial ritual of patting themselves on the back for passing the annual defense policy bill, known as the National Defense Authorization Act, with a broad bipartisan consensus. This year was no exception.
The House version of the bill passed last week 329-101, and the separate Senate version cleared the Armed Services Committee last month 23-3. The full Senate will take up the bill later this summer, and then the two versions must be reconciled in conference committee and reapproved by each chamber before being sent to the president to be signed into law.
Because the NDAA is considered “must pass” legislation, it becomes a vehicle for amendments that could not pass as stand-alone legislation. But not every amendment that wins initial approval will make it into the final bill.
HOUSE PASSES $839 BILLION DEFENSE SPENDING BILL SURPASSING BIDEN’S REQUEST
WHICH PROVISIONS MIGHT NOT SURVIVE? Among the amendments that could be canceled by Senate conferees is one sponsored by Rep. Bradley Schneider (D-IL) that “directs the FBI, Department of Homeland Security, and the Secretary of Defense to publish a report that analyzes and sets out strategies to combat White supremacist and neo-Nazi activity in the uniformed services and Federal law enforcement agencies.” That provision did not win a single Republican vote.
Another amendment by Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) requires the defense secretary to report to Congress “the extent, if any, of the threat to national security posed by domestic terrorist groups and organizations motivated by a belief system of white supremacy,” and cites specifically “the Proud Boys and Boogaloo.”
The progressive wing of the Democratic Party also managed to include amendments that would bar testing of the replacement for aging Minuteman III ICBMs, one of the three legs of America’s nuclear triad, while House Armed Services Chairman Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) got his amendment approved that would allow the Navy to retire nine Littoral Combat Ships, which clashes with the current Senate version, which would require the Navy to keep five of the flawed ships.
Other provisions impose a temporary limit on arms sales to Saudi Arabia and require the secretary of state to develop guidance for “investigating indications that U.S.-origin defense articles have been used in Yemen by the Saudi-led coalition.”
An amendment by Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Lou Correa (D-CA) would add methylenedioxymethamphetamine (commonly referred to as MDMA) and psilocybin as substances “authorized for a study on the use of therapies alternative to prescription opioids in the treatment of members of the Armed Forces.”
Not every amendment addresses a vital aspect of national security. An amendment by Reps. Salud Carbajal (D-CA) and Jaime Herrera Beutler (D-WA) would prohibit the Executive Office of the President, Department of Defense, and State Department from “displaying flowers unless grown domestically or in a US territory.” The provision makes an exemption for “personal display and gifts from other countries.“
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Greek Defense Minister Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos to the Pentagon at 2 p.m.
SHAKE-UP IN UKRAINE: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has fired his head of security services and his top prosecutor as he announced 651 criminal proceedings “regarding treason and collaboration activities of employees of prosecutor’s offices, pretrial investigation bodies, and other law enforcement agencies.”
The sacking of Ivan Bakanov, head of the SBU, Ukraine’s security services, and Iryna Venediktova, Ukraine’s prosecutor general, came as part of a shake-up, but neither was accused of treason.
But in his nightly video address, Zelensky said that nearly 200 people are under suspicion of “working against our state,” including more than 60 employees of the prosecutor’s office and the Security Service of Ukraine who remained in occupied territory.
“The specific actions and any inaction of each official in the security sector and in law enforcement agencies will be evaluated,” said Zelensky. “Everyone who together with him was part of a criminal group that worked in the interests of the Russian Federation will also be held accountable.”
READ MORE: ZELENSKY FIRES UKRAINE’S TOP SPY
RUSSIAN ‘PAUSE’ ENDING: Russian forces are beginning what the Institute for the Study of War calls “a measured return from the operational pause” as it resumes limited ground attacks in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.
“ISW continues to forecast that the end of the operational pause will be characterized by a fluctuating and staggered resumption of ground offensives,” the Washington-based think tank says in its latest war assessment. Russian troops continue to face stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces, with the ISW reporting that Russian advances were repulsed near Siversk, Bakhmut, and Yakovlivka.
The latest British intelligence assessment says that facing manning shortfalls and heavy casualties, the Russian forces in the Donbas have been using fighters from the Wagner Group private military company to reinforce their front lines.
“Wagner has almost certainly played a central role in recent fighting, including the capture of Popasna and Lysyschansk. This fighting has inflicted heavy casualties on the group,” the assessment says, while noting Wagner is having its own staffing problems.
“Wagner are lowering recruitment standards, hiring convicts and formerly blacklisted individuals. Very limited training is made available to new recruits,” the U.K. intelligence update says. “This will highly likely impact on the future operational effectiveness of the group and will reduce its value as a prop to the regular Russian forces.”
MEDVEDEV SAYS CRIMEA ATTACK WOULD TRIGGER ‘DOOMSDAY’ RESPONSE
SECRET SERVICE DENIES DELETING TEXTS: Members of the Jan. 6 committee investigating the attack on the Capitol say the Secret Service insists while some data may have been lost when the agency transitioned to new mobile phones, no relevant texts were deleted, and that it will provide the committee with texts from Jan. 5 and 6 by tomorrow.
“Well, you can imagine how shocked we were to get the letter from the inspector general saying that he had been trying to get this information and that they had, in fact, been deleted after he asked for them,” said Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) on ABC yesterday. “Then there was a statement made by the spokesperson for the department saying that it wasn’t true, it wasn’t fair, and that they, in fact, had pertinent texts — and we go, fine, if you have them, we need them.”
“If we end up getting the texts, then obviously, for whatever reason, the I.G. didn’t,” said Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL). “If we don’t, then it’ll call out the Secret Service as having said that they had these texts, and they don’t.”
“So, is this anything big? We’re not sure,” Kinzinger said on CBS. “But we need to chase every lead down on this, and there’s a question of, why are they not cooperating with the I.G., the DHS I.G.?”
TRUMP ‘GLEEFULLY’ WATCHED TV ON JAN. 6: KINZINGER PREVIEWS SUMMER HEARINGS FINALE
USG BUYING CHINA DRONES? Sen. Rob Portman, ranking member of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, is raising questions about why the U.S. government is buying commercial drones made in China.
Portman questioned Samantha Vinograd, senior counselor for national security in the Department of Homeland Security, at a hearing Friday, who said under certain waivers, DHS does purchase drones from Chinese drone maker DJI.
Citing a Washington Post report that Chinese drone maker DJI, a leading supplier of drones to U.S. law enforcement, has obscured its Chinese government funding, Portman urged how critical it is for Congress to pass the United States Innovation and Competition Act bill, since it includes the bipartisan American Security Drone Act, which would prohibit U.S. federal agencies from purchasing Chinese-made drones.
“I share your concerns about these drones and would welcome a conversation on specific language,” Vinograd testified, saying she could give more specifics on the waivers in closed testimony.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Biden and Saudis give dueling accounts of Khashoggi murder conversation
Washington Examiner: Biden going ‘back to the future’ with ‘zombie devotion to Arab dictatorships’
Washington Examiner: Sanders blasts Biden for Saudi Arabia trip
Washington Examiner: Iran capable of making nuclear bomb, senior official says
Washington Examiner: Medvedev says Crimea attack would trigger ‘doomsday’ response
Washington Examiner: Putin reshuffles top officials, including arms chief
Washington Examiner: Zelensky fires Ukraine’s top spy
Washington Examiner: Pentagon has not observed Russia use Iranian drones in Ukraine yet
Washington Examiner: International investigators find ‘extensive’ Russian human rights violations in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: John Spencer is a world-renowned expert on urban combat. Here’s how he thinks the war in Ukraine is going
Washington Examiner: Brittney Griner’s lawyers tell Russian court she had been prescribed medical marijuana
Washington Examiner: House passes $839 billion defense spending bill surpassing Biden’s request
Washington Examiner: Chinese hackers targeted DC journalists after 2020 election
Washington Examiner: Trump ‘gleefully’ watched TV on Jan. 6: Kinzinger previews summer hearings finale
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Biden was right to fist-bump MBS: Six issues in US-Saudi relations more important than Khashoggi
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why are Republicans John Rutherford and Rob Wittman helping China to defeat the US Navy?
New York Times: On Donetsk’s Front Line, Small Gains and Losses Impose a Heavy Toll
New York Times: Ukrainian Plane Carrying Serbian Munitions Bound for Bangladesh Crashes in Greece
Washington Post: Air Force veteran detained by pro-Russian separatists, brother says
Wall Street Journal: Putin Seeks To Cement Iran, Turkey Ties
Air Force Magazine: As Ukrainian Pilot Training Passes House NDAA, Legislators Work to Overcome Roadblocks
Yonhap: South Korea, U.S. Defense Chiefs To Meet In Washington Next Week
Washington Post: In Somalia, The Deadly Power Of A Resurgent Al-Shabab
Breaking Defense: Despite Inflation Woes, Boeing Says It Can Maintain $80M Unit Cost for F-15EX
The Drive: New Radars Are Giving Old Air Force F-16s Capabilities Like Never Before
The Drive: Missiles Clobber A Retired U.S. Navy Frigate During RIMPAC
CNN: U.S. Navy Challenges Chinese Claims In South China Sea For Second Time In A Week
Air Force Magazine: Air Force Offering Even More Enlistment Bonuses for Certain Career Fields—Here They Are
19fortyfive.com: NATO Has a Problem: Russia Claims to Have Destroyed Warehouse Full of Harpoon Missiles
19fortyfive.com: Putin’s War in Ukraine Is Back On
19fortyfive.com: You Can See the Wings: Watch A Russian Cruise Missile Strike Ukraine
Calendar
MONDAY | JULY 18
9 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Chinese Military Lessons from Ukraine,” with retired Army Lt. Gen. Charles Hooper, former senior director for China and Taiwan policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; Bonny Lin, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ China Power Project; Joel Wuthnow, senior research fellow at the National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; and Evan Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at CEIP https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/18/pla-lessons-from-ukraine
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The State of the Special Relationship: Four Years at the Heart of UK-U.S. Defense,” with Edward Ferguson, defense minister counselor at the British Embassy https://www.csis.org/events/state-special-relationship
1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Transforming Digital Defense Modernization Strategies for Army IT,” with Sean Frazier, federal chief security officer at OKTA; and Lauren Williams, senior editor at Federal Computer Week https://fcw.com/feature/tranforming-digital-defense
2 p.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Greek Defense Minister Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos to the Pentagon.
3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program and the U.S. Naval Institute for a Maritime Security Dialogue joint discussion on “maritime security,” with Gen. Eric Smith, assistant commandant of the Marine Corps; and retired Navy Vice Adm. Peter Daly, CEO of the U.S. Naval Institute https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue
TUESDAY | JULY 19
8 a.m. — State Department and the Commerce Department virtual Supply Chain Ministerial Forum, with opening remarks from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo Livestream at https://www.state.gov
9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion issues including “NATO’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, insights into intelligence sharing, concerns over Russian cyber threats and the outlook for NATO’s possible expansion,” with David Cattler, NATO assistant secretary Gen. for intelligence and security; and John Doyon, INSA executive vice president https://www.insaonline.org/event/coffee-and-conversation
9 a.m. — East-West Center in Washington and the National Committee on North Korea virtual discussion: “DPRK Diplomacy in Europe,” with Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Europe Ambassador: Kim Pyong-Il; and Nicolas Levi, scholar at the Polish Academy of Sciences https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
9:30 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Readiness Program Update,” with testimony from Army Vice Chief Gen. Joseph Martin; Deputy Chief of Naval Operations Vice Adm. Randy Crites; Assistant Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith; Air Force Vice Chief Gen. David Allvin; and Vice Chief of Space Operations, Gen. David Thompson https://armedservices.house.gov
10 a.m. — American Security Project virtual discussion: “The War in Ukraine and Energy Security and Energy Market Disruption,” with Kevin Book, head of research at ClearView Energy Partners LLC; and Mark Nevitt, associate professor of law at Syracuse University https://www.americansecurityproject.org/event
10:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Is China’s Military Logistics Better than the Russian Military’s?” with Joshua Arostegui, senior analyst at the Defense Department; George Shatzer, director of the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute’s Strategic Research and Analysis Department; James Roger Sessions, Defense Department analyst; Lonnie Henley, lecturer at George Washington University’s Elliot School of International Affairs; and Joel Wuthnow, senior research fellow at National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs https://www.csis.org/events/chinas-military-logistics
1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Lessons Learned: From the Ukraine-Russia Information War,” with Shawn Chenoweth, technical lead program manager at Peraton; Jeremy Widener COGINT analyst at 3GIMBALS; and Daniela Fayer, publisher at Defense One https://www.defenseone.com/feature/lessons-learned
6:30 p.m. 1221 Avenue of the Americas, N.Y. — International Institute for Strategic Studies virtual discussion: “Potential flashpoints in Asia: A recap of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2022,” with Lisa Curtis, director of the Center for a New American Security’s Indo-Pacific Security Program; Daniel Russel, vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute; David Gordon, senior adviser for geo-economics and strategy at IISS; and E.J. Herold, executive director of IISS-Americas Livestream at https://www.iiss.org/events
7 p.m. Aspen Meadows Resort, Colorado — Aspen Strategy Group three-day (19-22) Aspen Security Forum begins with a fireside chat with Chief of Space Operations, Gen. John “Jay” Raymond moderated by Mary Louise Kelly, NPR: and a second chat with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas moderated by Trymaine Lee https://www.aspensecurityforum.org/2022-agenda-in-person-asf
WEDNESDAY | JULY 20
7:15 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd, Arlington, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series” discussion with Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo https://www.ausa.org/events/ausa-coffee-series
9 a.m. 5000 Seminary Rd., Alexandria, Virginia — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement two-day VA Healthcare Conference, with Rep. Brad Wenstrup, R-Ohio; and Rep. Mike Levin, D-Calif., discussing “Saving Veterans’ Limbs and Lives by Application of the PAVE Program” https://www.idga.org/events-veteransaffairshealthcare
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Biden’s Trip to the Middle East: Outcomes and Opportunities,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro; Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Security Initiative; and Kirsten Fontenrose, Atlantic Council nonresident senior fellow https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/outcomes-and-opportunities/
9 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Does the War in Ukraine Herald a New European Era?” with Benedetta Berti, foreign policy and security analyst; Marc Pierini, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe; Sinan Ulgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe; and Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center https://carnegie-mec.org/2022/07/20
10:45 a.m. Aspen Meadows Resort, Colorado — Day Two of the Aspen Security Forum with Gen. Charles Flynn, commanding Gen., U.S. Army Pacific; Gen. Laura Richardson, commander, U.S. Southern Command; Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; Air Force Chief of Staff Charles Q. Brown; CIA Director William Burns; White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan; U.S. Northern Commander Gen. Glen VanHerck; former Defense Secretary Robert Gates; former Defense Secretary Mark Esper; Army Gen. Richard Clarke, commander U.S. Special Operations Command; Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va.; former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; Kay Bailey Hutchison, former U.S. ambassador to NATO; and others. Full agenda at https://www.aspensecurityforum.org
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Now the Real Work Begins: The U.S.-Japan Alliance Agenda,” with Edgard Kagan, special assistant to the president and senior director for East Asia and Oceania at the National Security Council; and Pamela Phan, deputy assistant secretary for Asia at the Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration https://www.csis.org/events/now-real-work-begins
THURSDAY | JULY 21
8:30 a.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion: “Advancing Abraham Accords Through Regional Air Defense,” with Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa; and Michael Makovsky, president and CEO of JINSA https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
9 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “Iran and the Regional Order,” with Mahsa Rouhi, research fellow at the National Defense University’s Center for Strategic Research https://dohainstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing for Lt. Gen. Bryan Fenton for promotion to general and to be commander, U.S. Special Operations Command; and Lt. Gen. Michael Langley for promotion to general and to be commander, U.S. Africa Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
3 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion:”Sweden and Finland’s application to join NATO and the future of security in Europe,” with Finnish Ambassador to the U.S. Mikko Hautala; and Swedish Ambassador to the U.S. Karin Olofsdotter https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ambassadors
WEDNESDAY | JULY 27
TBA Fort Bragg, North Carolina — Association of the U.S. Army two-day, in-person “Warfighter Summit and Exposition,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville; Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston; Alejandro Villanueva, former Army Ranger and former offensive tackle for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens; as well as leaders from Army Forces Command, the XVIII Airborne Corps and the 82nd Airborne Division. Register at https://meetings.ausa.org/warfighter/index.cfm
9 a.m. 10 Daniel French Dr. S.W. — Korean War Veterans Memorial “Wall of Remembrance Dedication Ceremony,” in which an addition featuring names of more than 36,000 American war dead and 7,000 Koreans who fought alongside them will be unveiled, with President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol attending. https://koreanwarvetsmemorial.org/event/wall-of-remembrance-dedication/
THURSDAY | JULY 28
1:30 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual fireside chat with Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr.; and Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow, director, CNAS Defense Program. https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-fireside-chat
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I would say, given what we know about what’s expected to be delivered, the commitments we’ve made, my own feelings from visiting Ukraine, seeing the entire country on a war footing, I don’t think this will go on for years. I think this will go on for months. Would I give it until Christmas? Maybe. But I don’t agree with estimates that this will go on for years. I think the Ukrainians will fight and eventually destroy the Russians in Ukraine.”
Retired Army Maj. John Spencer, an expert on urban warfare, in an interview published in this week’s Washington Examiner magazine.
