What can we learn from the decision by North Korean officials to back out from a planned meeting with Vice President Mike Pence in South Korea last week?
Simply, the North Koreans wanted to show the U.S. they are not buckling under the sanctions pressure.
By offering the U.S. a meeting with his sister and senior advisor, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un dangled the possibility with a diplomatic breakthrough and played off U.S. arrogance of where the crisis stands. I say arrogance because the Trump administration has spent the past few weeks patting itself on the back over the supposed success of their “maximum pressure” policy towards Kim’s regime.
The reality is that while North Korea is under significant pressure, it hasn’t altered Kim Jong Un’s strategic position. Until that changes, Trump’s policy can only be considered as failing. After all, with each passing day, Kim’s nuclear and missile scientists move ever closer to their ultimate objective: a nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capability that can deliver nuclear warheads against U.S. cities. Once, likely less than six months from now, the North Koreans perfect the heat shields and targeting systems on the warhead reentry vehicle, they’ve won the day.
Indeed, considering that our ballistic missile defense capabilities are mediocre at best, and Kim Jong Un’s rationality is questionable at best, this quite a significant problem.
Yet the Trump administration persists in claiming that its maximum pressure strategy is working. Leaving South Korea, Vice President Pence insisted that “There is no daylight between the United States, the Republic of Korea and Japan on the need to continue to isolate North Korea economically and diplomatically until they abandon their nuclear and ballistic missile program.”
This is absurd.
The administration’s maximum pressure strategy isn’t just dead, the South Koreans and Chinese are dancing on its grave.
President Moon Jae In of South Korea now speaks of North Korea the way Romeo speaks of Juliet. He’s now considering making a trip to Pyongyang.
China? Well, having masterfully manipulated Seoul against tougher action towards North Korea, the Chinese are now happily pretending that they are helping President Trump while doing the exact opposite. China continues to smuggle goods to keep Kim’s regime on its feet and continues to facilitate the delivery of Kim’s hard earned foreign capital: that which keeps his belly fat and his military ready to strike.
So what should the U.S. do?
Well, as I explained earlier this week, the only way to remedy this situation is to repudiate South Korean appeasement and immediately alter the Chinese strategic calculation that the U.S. has reached its escalatory apex.
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