If it seems as if the malls were decorated for the holidays and Christmas commercials started airing earlier than usual this year, it?s because shopping outlets and retailers are expecting the worst.
Retailers have pushed the holiday shopping season on consumers well in advance of Black Friday, trying to drown out reports of a weak housing market, an ongoing credit crunch and rising gas prices. But numerous retail groups have repeatedly predicted what few businesses want to hear: This shopping season could be one of the slowest in recent memory.
“My members are looking at a very difficult season,” said Tom Saquella, president of the Maryland Retailers Association. “A lot of things are hurting the economy right now.”
The MRA forecasts only a 2 percent gain in holiday sales of general merchandise from last year, based on a survey of its members. The organization reported 36 percent of state retailers predicted increases of 2 percent or less and “expressed no optimism for the holiday season.”
The National Retail Federation, based in D.C., predicted holiday sales will increase 4 percent this year to $474.5 billion. The increase is expected to fall below the 10-year average of 4.8 percent and would be the slowest sales growth since 2002, when sales rose 1.3 percent.
“Weexpect retailers to be very aggressive this year,” said retail expert Vikram Sharma, CEO of ShopLocal, a company that provides online services for retailers.
“This is absolutely the make-or-break time for retailers, and we?re seeing them pull out all the stops with increased sales and advertisements,” Sharma said.
Samantha Harris, assistant general manager of Towson Town Center, said despite negative reports on the economy and pessimistic spending forecasts, malls and retailers are remaining upbeat as they prepare for a rush of shoppers to flood the stores and open their wallets on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving.
“This is like the beginning of the playoffs for us,” Harris said. “We?ve been working all year toward this, and this is easily the biggest time for us.”
Saquella, who said people will still flock to the malls during the holidays out of habit and tradition, hopes consumers do more than just walk the halls and sip coffee.
“I always say, ?Don?t tell me how many cars are in the parking lot. Tell me how many people walk out of the stores and have bags in their hands,? ” Saquella said.
CONSUMER RESTRAINT?
October?s retail sales were up, though only slightly, signaling a possible slowdown in consumer spending as the retail industry begins its holiday season, according to the National Retail Federation. The month?s retail industry sales rose 4.4 percent unadjusted over last year and 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted from September.
