After the NFL’s wild-card weekend lived up to its name, the divisional weekend was almost just as wild too. Now that we’re down to the final four, who will earn a spot in the Super Bowl? The top two seeds, San Francisco and Green Bay, will battle it out in the NFC while the second-seeded Chiefs will host the upstart Titans in the AFC title game.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (3:05 p.m. ET on CBS)
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs seemed like they were done after falling behind 24-0 to the Texans. Boy, did that turn out to be wrong. Mahomes led the Chiefs to a historic comeback win as they put up an astonishing 51 points and won by 20.
As I wrote last week, the Chiefs have a top-five scoring offense and rank second in offensive yards per play. Another key stat for them, as it is for any team, is third-down conversions. The Chiefs lead the league when it comes it moving the chains on third down. They convert 47.6% of the time.
The Titans have the NFL’s third-best rushing offense in terms of yards per game and are second in yards per carry. Their excellent rushing attack is one of the reasons they are phenomenal at converting in the red zone. They score touchdowns on 75.6% of their red zone trips. The Chiefs, by comparison, are 20th at 54%.
The Chiefs have certainly been susceptible to the run this season. They have the 7th-worst run defense in the league. The Titans have a problem that is similar to the Chiefs, but their issue is defending the pass. Tennessee has the 9th-worst passing defense in football while the Chiefs have the 5th-best passing offense.
My X-factor in each of the last two games the Titans have played was Derrick Henry. Guess who my X-factor is in this game? Derrick Henry. I wouldn’t want to try tackling this guy in the open field, and it appears that the Patriots and Ravens defenses felt the same way I do. Last week, he became the first player in NFL history to run for at least 180 yards in three straight games.
Check out this nugget from NFL.com’s Nick Shook. Henry became the first runner to rush for 175-plus yards in two games in the same postseason and became the first to do so in consecutive playoff games. I expect that we’ll see him get another 30 carries or so against Kansas City.
While regular season games don’t mean a lick in the playoffs, Tennessee’s regular season win over the Chiefs in Nashville in early November was instructive. The Titans won 35-32 thanks to Ryan Tannehill throwing a go-ahead touchdown pass with 23 seconds left and the Titans blocking a last-second field-goal attempt.
It was Mahomes’ first game back from injury and he threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns with no picks. Tannehill was 13-of-19 for 181 yards and two touchdowns and no interceptions. Derrick Henry ran the ball 23 times for 188 yards and two scores, averaging 8.2 yards per carry.
The Chiefs led in time of possession (37:52 to 22:08), total yards (530 to 371), and first downs (28 to 19) and lost the game.
Look at what happened in Baltimore last week. The Ravens led in time of possession (32:06 to 27:54), total yards (530 to 300), and first downs (29 to 15) and still got crushed by the Titans.
Here’s the formula that the Titans must use if they want to have a great chance to win: On offense, Tennessee needs to establish the run with Henry and keep Mahomes off the field. On defense, the Titans need to bend and not break in addition to trying to disrupt Mahomes. They’ve done a great job of that so far this postseason. Mahomes is likely to put up some gaudy stats, but the Titans have proven that they can beat the Chiefs even when he puts up video game numbers.
Here’s the formula that the Chiefs must use if they want to advance to the Super Bowl. On offense, avoid falling behind early, and don’t settle for field goals. Target Travis Kelce and Tyreke Hill early and often. On defense, stop Derrick Henry from single-handedly beating you.
It seems simple, but New England and Baltimore couldn’t do it.
The spread: Kansas City (-7.0)
The pick: I’ve been burned each of the past two weeks by the Titans. They finally have a matchup that I really like against a Chiefs team that doesn’t defend the run well. I’m taking the Titans and the points.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (6:40 p.m. ET on FOX)
The 49ers smoked the Packers, 37-8, in week 12 in San Francisco. As I said before, regular season games don’t count in the postseason but can be instructive. San Francisco was incredibly disruptive up front, sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and holding Green Bay to 1-for-15 on third downs and a paltry 2.8 yards per play.
My X-factor in this game is the 49ers front seven against Rodgers and the Green Bay offensive line. If the 49ers are getting good penetration up front and pressuring Rodgers from all sides, they’re going to be successful. Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook had a fantastic game against the Saints and then got smothered by the 49ers. They held him to 18 yards on nine carries and just eight yards on six catches. The 49ers got into the backfield early and often.
Aaron Jones will need to be effective so that Rodgers doesn’t have to do a ton of the heavy lifting. Teams have had success running on San Francisco this year. They give up over 112 rushing yards per game, and teams are averaging 4.5 yards per carry on them.
Nevertheless, the 49ers still have a Top 10 scoring defense and rank just ahead of Green Bay in that category. San Francisco has the NFL’s top passing defense in terms of passing yards allowed per game, so it’ll be important for the Packers to attack the 49ers’ weaknesses like run defense instead of playing to their strengths.
San Francisco is ranked second in scoring offense while the Packers are ranked 15th. Part of the reason why Green Bay isn’t ranked higher is due to injuries that the team suffered over the course of the season. Another reason is the performance of Aaron Rodgers during the regular season. Aside from a few brilliant games, Rodgers was merely good instead of playing at a superstar level every single week. He was great last week against the Seahawks, but can he be as good or better than that against a defense that dominated them the last time they faced off?
The 49ers ran the ball 47 times last week and racked up 186 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Matt Breida have helped the 49ers become the NFL’s second-best rushing offense. No team has scored more rushing touchdowns this season than San Francisco.
The Davante Adams-Richard Sherman matchup will be one to keep an eye on all game long. Adams erupted for eight catches for 160 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle, but Sherman looked dominant against Minnesota. It’ll be interesting to see who wins this matchup. If Sherman can limit Adams one-on-one, the 49ers will be able to keep more guys in the box to stifle the run game.
My X-factor in this game is the 49ers front seven against Rodgers and the Green Bay offensive line. If the 49ers are getting good penetration up front and pressuring Rodgers from all sides, they’re going to be successful. Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook had a fantastic game against the Saints and then got smothered by the 49ers. They held him to 18 yards on nine carries and just eight yards on six catches. The 49ers got into the backfield early and often. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to sacks and tackles for loss. When their defensive line is playing well, they are tough to beat.
Interestingly, the 49ers are 5th in the NFL at converting on third downs (45%) but 21st (53.2%) when it comes to scoring touchdowns in the red zone. The Packers are 21st when it comes to converting on third downs (36%) but 8th (64%) at converting red zone trips into touchdowns.
Here’s the formula for the Packers: On offense, Rodgers and Jones need to have big games. They have to break the pressure of the 49ers front seven and force them to play back on their heels. Rodgers will need to be the Aaron Rodgers that led this team to the Super Bowl in 2010. On defense, they need to limit Tevin Coleman and prevent the 49ers from converting at such a proficient rate on third downs. Getting the defense off the field also gives Rodgers more chances to crack San Francisco’s defense.
Here’s the formula for the 49ers: On offense, establish the run and keep the defense honest with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. It’s important for Jimmy Garoppolo to be efficient and take care of the football. He likely won’t need to throw for 300 yards in order to win, so there’s no need to force anything. On defense, be disruptive and cause chaos up front. Frustrate and pressure Rodgers and basically live in the backfield the whole game.
The spread: San Francisco (-7.5)
The pick: I’m taking the 49ers to advance to the Super Bowl, but I think it’ll be a close game at the end. I’d suggest grabbing the points.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
