As tensions in Asia, particularly in and around the South and East China Seas, have steadily risen in the past eight years, Taiwan has emerged as an island of unexpected tranquility. The thaw in cross-Strait relations brought about by the era of the Nationalist (KMT) presidency of Taiwan’s Ma Ying-jeou, however, could soon be coming to an end. The likely election of opposition leader Dr. Tsai Ing-wen as president of Taiwan on January 16th may signal that rockier relations with Beijing lie just over the horizon.
While the dire warnings of “scorched earth diplomacy” with Beijing in the event of an opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) victory seem exaggerated, Beijing’s fixation on a reaffirmation of the “1992 consensus” could present a problem. Dr. Tsai Ing-wen has certainly indicated a more studious approach to cross-Strait issues than the last DPP President Chen Shui-bian. The Los Angeles Times reported on January 11th that her detail to policy analysis and reputation as a perfectionist have earned her the nickname “Correction Tsai.”
