Or at least that’s the conclusion of a Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey of hypothetical 2012 match-ups between Barack Obama and Republicans like Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee.
PPP is a Democratic-leaning firm, so some will say its numbers are cooked to make the President look surprisingly strong in a state where voters just sent three incumbent Democratic congressmen packing and a year before that saw the GOP sweep all three statewide offices and pad its margins in the House of Delegates. PPP says all this is because of the enthusiasm gap, and Democratic voters staying home. Since 2009.
Okay, sure. There was an enthusiasm gap. And sure, a lot of likely Democratic voters did stay home the last couple of years because, well, outside of Mr. Obama, the rest of the Democratic field is just plain dull (nevermind the President’s last minute stumping for Rep. Tom Perriello in Charlottesville, which drew nice crowds, but couldn’t help Perriello retain his seat).
But there’s no guarantee that those couch potatoes will vote in 2012 for Obama. To say that they will two years from now borders on magical thinking.
All that aside, there’s one very relevant assertion in the PPP write-up that Republicans ought to take to heart:
It’s obviously way early but these numbers make it clear Republicans in Virginia can’t put up just anyone and expect to start winning the state again at the Presidential level.
A slight correction: it’s not Virginia Republicans who will be putting up “anyone” in 2012, but Republicans nationwide. Still, the general thrust is right; Republicans are guaranteed nothing in 2012 and the party’s recent resurgence in Virginia over the last two election cycles guarantees nothing.
Fortunately (for political junkies…not so much for anyone else), Virginia has yet another general election next year, when all 140 members of the General Assembly will be on the ballot. This election will test many things – whether the GOP’s wins in 2009-10 were but bumps in the Democratic road or the first signs of even bigger Republican gains in the years to come. It will be a test for Gov. McDonnell, sort of like his mid-term exam. And it will be a real test for Virginia’s Democrats, who have slipped mightily in the last two cycles and can ill-afford to lose even more ground before the big national dance in 2012.
Unfortunately, Virginia’s Democrats don’t show many early signs of having either a message or an effective messenger to stave-off those losses. So enjoy your polling numbers, Mr. President. They may represent your high-water mark in the Old Dominion.
