The October 2018 murder of Jamal Khashoggi stains Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Salman, after all, ordered that murder. Yet when it comes to Saudi Arabia, the United States has far more important concerns than Khashoggi.
This bears note in light of President Joe Biden’s meeting in Riyadh with Salman and his father, King Salman. Much of the U.S. media are pressuring Biden to address Khashoggi’s death robustly, presenting this as the key issue for the leaders’ meeting on Friday. Biden has already received criticism for fist-bumping Salman on his arrival. The media criticism is wrong. It would mean further alienating the already paranoid king-in-waiting. And if the crown prince sees the U.S. embarrassing him on the international stage, he will retaliate by ignoring Biden on other matters.
That matters because there are far more important U.S. interests in Saudi Arabia than Khashoggi. Here are six of them.
1. Energy
Rising inflation is Americans’ critically important concern. Saudi Arabia has the means to reduce price pressure at U.S. gas pumps by expanding its oil output. Contrary to suggestions that Saudi Arabia is running at max output capacity, that is not true. Both Saudi Arabia and its exceptionally close UAE ally and partner could commit to longer-term output rates, comforting energy markets and restraining prices gradually. The first responsibility of an American president is to provide for the interests of Americans. It makes moral and strategic sense for Biden to prioritize this issue, even if it means deprioritizing Khashoggi.
2. Iran and Israel
The success of the Abraham Accords in forging closer ties between Israel and Arab regimes, such as the UAE, is striking. Salman’s amenability to Biden’s arrival from Israel further indicates his openness to joining the Accords (public presentation is deeply important in Arab culture). That would be a huge step toward ending the Israeli-Arab conflict. It would also forge a more cooperative deterrent alliance against Iran.
As Iran escalates its nuclear program, the Sunni Arab monarchies led by Saudi Arabia sense a nemesis that wants to avenge ancient theological battles via a nuclear mushroom cloud over Riyadh. Israel fears a second Holocaust. The more cooperation against that shared threat, the better. Again, we’re talking about nuclear weapons here. This is not a small concern. The moment Iran gets a nuclear weapon, Salman will get his own from Pakistan. A nuclear arms race between two powers that view each other through a paranoid lens of theological-historic-political hatred is not a good ingredient for global stability (or restrained gas prices). Biden, obviously, has an interest in preventing this development.
A true Israeli-Saudi partnership would also allow for more effective action in support of broader Middle Eastern stability. For example, in Lebanon, this cooperation would feasibly allow for joint intelligence service, political, and economic action to assist in Lebanese political reforms. Reforms, that is to say, that mitigate the very real threat of a second Lebanese civil war. Again, what is more moral than preventing another bloody sectarian conflict?
3. Counterterrorism and political modernity
Considering the Saudi population’s youth bulge, the U.S. has a vested interest in ensuring that Salman’s dramatic social and economic reforms are successful. True, Saudi Arabia remains autocratic. But Salman has bolstered women’s rights and moved to diversify his oil-dependent economy and liberalize his society. If Salman fails, we may be looking at an ISIS 2.0 — a Salafi-Jihadist state possibly armed with nuclear weapons. The U.S. should be an unapologetic partner in ensuring Salman does not fail. The U.S. should encourage U.S. companies to invest in these reform efforts.
4. China-Russia
Responding to the increased uncertainty of his U.S. alliance, Salman is moving closer to China and Russia. China is assisting Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program, and Russia is leveraging its influence over Iran to win Salman’s support on other international matters. This is bad for Syria, bad for global stability, and bad for the U.S. It also reflects a broader trend of diminishing U.S. influence in the Middle East. Albeit with an unacceptable disregard for the U.S. alliance, former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made the same moves toward China.
Regardless, Biden needs to consolidate these alliances. They support U.S. security and prosperity and mitigate the empowerment of America’s two main global adversaries: China and Russia. Harping on about Khashoggi will not bring him back. It only pushes Salman further into the arms of leaders who care nothing about human rights and will never embarrass him on that count.
5. Yemen
The Yemeni civil war has cost hundreds of thousands of innocent lives and caused mass starvation and misery. Fighting Iran, Saudi Arabia remains a key party to the conflict. Biden’s renewed influence with Salman might allow the president to speed an end to that war and a refocus of allied cooperation on restraining al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
6. Hostages
As Josh Rogin notes, a number of Americans continue to be held prisoner unjustly in Saudi Arabia. While Biden should not adopt the same wrong-headed strategy toward hostage negotiations that he has applied toward Russia (this only encourages further hostage taking), he should demand Salman release these Americans. Even if Salman hopes that Biden might be replaced by a more sympathetic president come January 2025, the crown prince must surely know that any future president will prioritize the release of unjustly held U.S. citizens. Under pressure, he may cut a deal now.
But it’s not just Americans who matter here. Take the Saudi detention of Saad al Jabri’s children, for example. A former Saudi counterterrorism official instrumental in saving U.S. lives, Jabri now lives in exile in Canada. But Salman despises Jabri for opposing his rule. The crown prince is holding two of Jabri’s children hostage in order to pressure him to return home and face persecution. Khashoggi is dead. Allies like Jabri can still be supported. They deserve as much. Failing America’s influence in their interests, others debating whether to take risks in America’s interests may see the risks of doing so outweigh the rewards. Credibility matters.
So yes, what happened to Khashoggi was awful. And yes, Salman is responsible for his brutal murder. But U.S. foreign policy does not exist in an ideal world. The effective conduct of foreign policy must balance actions in the pursuit of priority interests. Biden was right to fist-bump Salman.
