President Trump’s strength in a state that helped him narrowly win the White House in 2016 is showing signs of erosion, based on Joe Biden’s Democratic primary performance.
The former vice president on Tuesday won the Michigan Democratic primary 53-36% over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Biden came in far ahead in most demographics, including white men, a crucial voting group in the state, among others. That’s a big difference from Sanders’s Michigan primary win in 2016 over eventual nominee Hillary Clinton.
It’s also an upward swing from Clinton’s 2016 general election Michigan loss to Trump. Michigan, which Trump won narrowly along with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, was enough to give him an Electoral College majority in the biggest political upset in decades.
“Two positive signs for Biden in Michigan on Tuesday were his strength with white blue-collar workers and his performance with African American voters. Biden won Macomb County in suburban Detroit, which is the ancestral homeland of Reagan Democrats,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “Clinton lost there to Sanders in 2016. In November 2016, turnout among African American voters in Wayne County was a factor in her loss to Trump there. Tuesday, black primary turnout in Michigan was higher than it was in the 2016 primary.”
Biden won union voters in Michigan and Missouri, in some districts by double-digits. Sanders’s attacks on Biden’s record over free trade agreements such as NAFTA did little to persuade voters over who best represented their interests.
In districts Trump won by 30 points in 2016, such as Livingston County, voter turnout in the Democratic primary increased by a staggering 56% and was overwhelmingly for Biden.
“In 2016, just over 2.5 million voters participated in the March presidential primary, with 1.3 million voting in the Republican primary and 1.2 million voting in the Democratic primary, which in many ways predicted the close 10,000-plus vote victory by Trump in November,” said Michigan pollster Bernie Porn. “In March of 2020, about 700,000 voted in a Republican primary with little competition, but participation grew in the Democratic primary to more than 1.5 million votes, with Biden solidly winning among many groups, including union member households, suburban women and even more rural areas to defeat Bernie Sanders.”
Biden’s pattern of trouncing Sanders continued throughout the state, with him winning every single county. In Oakland County, a wealthy Detroit suburb and must-win for Trump in 2020, turnout increased around 45%. Biden beat Sanders there by 22 points; Clinton beat him by 4 points in 2016.
GOP strategists often look at Michigan as a bellwether for other Midwestern states such as Wisconsin. The demographics of Michigan also closely mirror Pennsylvania.
Polling out of Michigan also paints a poor picture for Trump, showing him losing to Biden in a number of theoretical matchups. A RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Biden leading Trump by 4.8 points, with some recent polls showing that lead as large as 7 points.
“Our previous statewide general election polls have shown Biden leading Trump by a low of 6 points to a high of 10 points, and with the results of the primary and a vote to reelect of only 34 percent for Trump, Michigan has to be favored to be a blue voting state in November,” Porn said.
