The Army Black Knights take on the Navy Midshipmen in America’s game at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia on Saturday. A Navy win would mean the Midshipmen reclaim the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy and gain momentum heading into their bowl game. An Army upset mean their fourth straight win against Navy, a solid consolation in an otherwise disappointing season.
Army (5-7) vs. No. 24 Navy (9-2) (3:00 p.m. EST on CBS)
Navy comes in as a big favorite. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Midshipmen have a 76% chance to win.
Navy has lost just twice this year. One of those losses was by 12 points on the road at Memphis, the 12-1 American Athletic Conference champions who earned a New Year’s Day bowl game as the highest-ranked Group of 5 team. Navy also got demolished at Notre Dame by 32. Other than those two blemishes against good teams, Navy has been solid.
Army, on the other hand, comes into this game having lost six of its last eight games. It certainly doesn’t carry much momentum into this game after giving up over 50 points in a 21-point loss at Hawaii on Nov. 30.
As is the case with most college offenses but especially with triple-option offenses, quick and accurate decision-making from the quarterback is critical.
Last year, Jeff Monken and Kelvin Hopkins Jr. led the Black Knights to an 11-2 record, which included an overtime loss at eventual Big 12 champion Oklahoma and Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray, a win in the Army-Navy game, and a spot in the final AP poll of the year. The Black Knights had the nation’s top running game, averaging over 317 yards per game, and had a top-10 scoring defense as well.
That stands in stark contrast to this season.
After a sloppy 14-7 season-opening win against Rice, Army nearly upset top-10 Michigan in The Big House but fell in overtime. The Black Knights never really seemed to recover from that loss. Hopkins has regressed in most areas. In 2018, he threw for over 1,000 yards with six touchdowns and three picks and ran for over 1,000 yards with 17 touchdowns while averaging nearly five yards per carry.
This year, Hopkins Jr. has thrown for less than 600 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions and has run for just over 700 yards with seven touchdowns. His completion percentage is also down from 54.8% in 2018 to 42.7% in 2019.
Navy, on the other hand, has the nation’s top rushing offense this season, is sporting a top-20 rushing defense, and a top-10 scoring offense.
Navy QB Malcolm Perry is the most dynamic and explosive player on the field. In each of the last three years, he has had at least one carry of at least 70 yards. This was his third season rushing for over 1,000 yards, and it has been the best of his career by far. After taking the reins at quarterback, Perry has run for 1,500 yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 6.3 yards per carry and has also thrown for over 1,000 yards with six touchdowns and three picks while completing 54.4% of his passes.
The first X-factor in the game is Perry and Navy’s running backs against Army’s linebackers. Navy has already proven its ability to run the ball well, even against the toughest teams on its schedule. The Midshipmen racked up 214 rushing yards in their win against Air Force and limited the Falcons to just 108 yards on the ground. They ran for 291 yards against Memphis and held the Tigers to just 105 rushing yards as a team. In their home win against ranked SMU, Navy ran for 398 yards while holding the Mustangs to 93. Even in the blowout loss to Notre Dame, the Midshipmen still put up 281 rushing yards and only allowed 105.
Navy’s offensive line is outstanding. The question is whether or not Army’s linebackers will be able to wrap up Perry and Navy’s running backs and prevent them from getting extra yards after contact. Sloppy tackling will lead to extra yards and sustained drives. Army will have to fly to the ball and maintain gap discipline.
My second X-factor is Army’s red-zone defense against Navy’s red-zone offense. Navy leads the nation in red-zone offense. The Midshipmen have taken 41 trips to the red zone and have scored a touchdown or field goal 40 times. That’s 97.6% of the time, which ranks ahead of LSU at No. 2 and Georgia at No. 3.
Thirty-five of those 40 scores have been touchdowns. The Midshipmen have done an exceptional job of maximizing their scoring opportunities when it matters most. Army is 30th nationally in total defense, allowing just 337.8 yards of offense per game, but is also ranked 52nd in run defense, 103rd in red zone defense, and 104th in third-down defense. The Black Knights will have to do a much better job of getting off the field than they have up to this point, and they’ll need to step up in the red zone and force the Midshipmen into field goals.
In order to have a chance, Army will have to do what it did in its losses to Michigan and Air Force: keep it low-scoring and keep it close. The Black Knights had chances to win both games but didn’t execute well when it mattered most. By staying in striking distance, Army can at least give itself an opportunity to win late in the game. In order to do that, however, the Black Knights will need to find some way to slow down the Midshipmen.
These teams are so similar in style because of their triple-option attacks that it will come down to execution (especially in the red zone), good tackling, discipline, and the turnover battle. Over the last five years, these games have been pretty low-scoring and incredibly close:
In 2014, Navy won by seven (17-10).
In 2015, Navy won by four (21-17).
In 2016, Army won by four (21-17).
In 2017, Army won by one (14-13).
In 2018, Army won by seven (17-10).
This rivalry has taught me to expect more of the same between these two storied programs.
My pick: Malcolm Perry is the best player on the field, and he’s playing in his final Army-Navy game. I think he leads the Midshipmen to victory, so I’m taking Navy to win and snap its three-game losing streak in the rivalry.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
