A few Southern states appear to be turning the corner on the recent delta surge as new COVID-19 cases decline, but relief is still a long way off for overburdened hospitals.
Since mid-August, Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, and Mississippi have seen a decline in their seven-day average of new confirmed COVID-19 cases, reporting 14%, 11%, 9% and 21%, respectively, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Louisiana experienced a dramatic drop of 60% since mid-August. However, Susan Hassig, an epidemiology professor at Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, suggested it may be partly due to Hurricane Ida causing an artificial drop.
“Lots of people have left. They’ve gone other places. Probably some of them took COVID with them,” Hassig said.
Still, going back to Aug. 26, a few days before Ida landed in Louisiana, cases dropped by nearly 40%.
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In Texas, new cases have not declined but do seem to have plateaued. From Aug. 18 to Sept. 1, the average of new daily cases hovered between 16,000 and 17,000.
“When we look at statewide numbers, it does appear that we’re at the top of this surge now,” said Dr. David Lakey, chief medical officer of the University of Texas System and a member of the Texas Medical Association COVID-19 Task Force. “So, we’re hopeful that the statewide numbers will be coming down soon.”
Total hospitalizations for COVID-19 have also plateaued in much of Texas and have begun to decline in other states. But that doesn’t mean hospital staff can breathe a sigh of relief.
“In south Mississippi and throughout the state, we are in crisis,” April LaFontaine, Gulfport Memorial Hospital’s chief administrative officer, told Mississippi Today on Monday. “Our hospital was full before the hurricane, and we’re still full now.”
COVID-19 hospitalizations have dropped in Mississippi, but they fell from record-setting peaks. The state peaked at 1,717 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 on Aug. 23, which had fallen to 1,592 on Aug. 31. That is still well above the previous record of 1,046 set in January during the winter surge.
In Florida, hospitalizations fell from a peak of over 16,000 in August to just under 15,000 at the beginning of September. The previous high of about 10,000 occurred during the summer surge of 2020.
“Our hospitals are still very full,” said Mary Mayhew, president and CEO of the Florida Hospital Association. “Bed availability previously dipped down to less than 5%. I never saw our numbers on a statewide basis get that low over the last 18 months.”
Mayhew is hopeful if the current rate of decline continues, hospital capacity will substantially improve by the end of September.
In Texas, COVID-19 cases and related hospitalizations have leveled off in the last two weeks but have not yet declined.
“When I talk to our chief medical officers in the [University of Texas System], all of them are extremely busy right now,” Lakey said. “And many of the hospitals have been on diversion. So if a patient comes in with a heart attack or a stroke and those hospitals are full, they have to find a different hospital to care for those patients.”
Hassig is concerned the aftermath of Hurricane Ida could cause the delta variant to resurge in Louisiana.
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“The real concern is that as people then return to the area and the rebuilding and restoration process begins here locally, COVID is probably not going to be front of mind for a lot of people,” Hassig said. “And so some of the restrictions and guidance and everything else is potentially unlikely to be followed as rigorously.”
