Can the modern-day “Giant Killer” survive his own success?
Nick Zito supplanted the legendary H. Allen Jerkens as the king of upsets when two long-shot horses he trained knocked off potential Triple Crown champions. On his hometown track, Zito denied unbeaten Smarty Jones (2004) and Big Brown (2008) immortality. Nobody beats Zito on a big day in New York.
But that’s not the situation this year. In fact, Zito’s Ice Box is the 2-1 favorite in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, while stablemate Fly Down is the 9-2 third choice. With Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness Stakes champion Looking At Lucky not running, Zito seemingly has it cornered.
Sure, Preakness runner-up First Dude is a serious threat. Stately Victor easily could bounce back from a dismal Derby, while Game On Dude is intriguing.
But none of that will matter. Zito will become a three-time Belmont winner behind Ice Box. Stately Victor will finish second and Fly Down third.
Ice Box should have won the Derby instead of finishing a close second. He suffered all the bad luck a 20-horse field offers when he was blocked repeatedly over a sloppy track. Rather than risk a quick rematch, Zito rested Ice Box five weeks for the Belmont.
Ice Box will prove he’s the best 3-year-old colt by taking the Belmont. He won the Florida Derby before he was denied the Kentucky Derby. Ice Box is a late-running train in the lane, and that works in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont.
Stately Victor is another cursed Derby runner. Starting from the outside No. 20, the early runner used everything to get to the front on the wet track, leaving him with nothing for the final quarter mile. Throw out that effort. Instead, think of his runaway Bluegrass Stakes victory. That’s the real Stately Victor. At 15-1, he’s the real value for a pricey exacta.
Fly Down feels like Zito’s hole card. He won the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont on May 8 by six lengths. It wouldn’t be a big upset if Fly Down won.
First Dude narrowly lost the Preakness at 23-1, but it was never his race to win. With four seconds in seven races, he’s a money-burner. Don’t get suckered, especially at 7-2.
Instead, long-shot bettors should try Make Music for Me, a fourth-place Derby finisher who was stuck eight wide on the turn. The colt is 1-for-9 because he tends to find trouble on the track, but 1 1/2 miles overcomes such sins, and Make Music for Me has the late run that works here.
Rick Snider has covered local sports since 1978. Read more at TheRickSniderReport.com and Twitter @Snide_Remarks or e-mail [email protected].
