A week from Monday, Iowans will head to their caucus sites and have their say in determining who the Republican and Democratic nominees for president will be. Last week, I looked at early polls from 2012 and 2008 and found that they weren’t great at predicting who would win in Iowa, in New Hampshire or the nomination, even when there were only two weeks until the Iowa Caucuses. Historically, are the polls any better only one week before Iowa?
2012, Republican national polls: On Dec. 27, 2011, Newt Gingrich led national polls by about three percentage points over Mitt Romney. Despite his lead going into Iowa, Gingrich finished fourth there and eventually won only two primary contests. Gingrich lost the polling lead nationally the day after Iowa, but retook the lead briefly in the last week of January. Mitt Romney also lost the national polling lead to Rick Santorum, but took the lead for good in late February, just before Super Tuesday.
