The results of a recent statewide poll in Maryland confirm that the 2006 election in the Old Line State should be a doozy.
For the first time in 20 years, Maryland has an open-seat Senate race. The contest features two prominent Democrats, former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume and 3rd District Congressman Ben Cardin, who are squaring off for the right to take on Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, the all-but-certain Republican nominee.
The gubernatorial race will be even more interesting. That race also features two prominent Democrats, Baltimore Mayor Martin O?Malley and Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan, each of whom believes he can prevent incumbent Gov. Robert Ehrlich from becoming the first Republican governor re-elected in half a century.
Among these six candidates, whose poll numbers from the Gonzales Research & Marketing poll are most telling? Actually, none of them.
The poll?s most important stat is President George W. Bush?s statewide approval rating, an abysmal 29 percent. Bush has never been well-liked in Maryland, but at just 63 percent, his approval rating in September 2002 ? on the eve of the Ehrlich-Steele victory ? was more than double what it is now.
Bush isn?t on this ballot, so why does he matter? Because the two Democratic primary winners will play pin-the-GOP-tail-on-the-elephant by invoking Bush?s name almost every time they mention Ehrlich or Steele.
The two Republicans may as well change their middle initials to “W” right now.
Ehrlich and Steele are savvy politicians ? smart, telegenic, well-resourced candidates served by top-notch advisers. Steele has made a few gaffes and Ehrlich has supported several unpopular policies.
But given the partisan situation they confront, they have governed like rare steaks. That is, since their 2002 victory, both have gone pink in the middle: They assiduously avoid ideological labels or taking controversial, “red”-meat positions that might offend voters in one of the nation?s bluest states. They know they must run for office by running from Bush.
Yet both men trail in head-to-head matchups against both of their opponents. The Gonzales poll shows Ehrlich trailing O?Malley by five points, Duncan by two. Steele is in a much bigger hole, behind 14 points to Cardin and five to Mfume.
Four factors account for Ehrlich?s better re-election position.
First, he?s running for re-election; Steele is not. Second, Ehrlich has more political experience and deeper ties to Maryland voters than Steele. Third, Ehrlich is running for state office and will be pressed much less often than Steele to discuss national topics.
Finally, Ehrlich is white. The governor will probably draw a smaller share of the black vote than Steele. But the much larger bloc of white voters will decide both men?s fates.
Ehrlich leads both O?Malley and Duncan among white voters. By contrast, while the Gonzales poll shows Steele receiving a smaller share of the black vote against Mfume (16 percent) than Cardin (21 percent), Steele is ahead among white voters against Mfume, but not against Cardin.
For all his talk of race-blind politics, Steele needs Mfume to win the Democratic primary because certain whites ? some Democrats or independents, to be sure, but Republicans especially ? simply cannot bring themselves to pull the lever for him.
Still, the key factor is Bush. The anti-Republican mood generated by his failed presidency presents a fundamentally different election this time around. All statewide elections in Maryland are tough for Republicans, but courtesy of Bush?s unpopularity, the Republican tailwind in 2002 is now a powerful headwind.
Thomas F. Schaller is an associate professor of political science at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County.
