Democrats are approaching the North Carolina Senate race like an ex who says they want to get back together after a series of on-again, off-again relationships. They’re ignoring sweet words and watching actions to see if their former special one really means it.
That’s led Democrats, for now at least, to be rather cautious about investing significant money and other campaign resources, not to mention hope, on behalf of Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley. She’s running for the Tar Heel State’s open Senate seat, to replace retiring Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC). Beasley, a former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, faces Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC), a gun store owner in his pre-congressional career whom former President Donald Trump backed early for the GOP Senate nomination.
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On paper, Democrats seem to have a real shot at winning the North Carolina race. Doing so would help them immensely in their quest for an outright Senate majority, rather than the razor-thin edge they’ve held for nearly two years in the 50-50 chamber thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote.
A Beasley win in the North Carolina Senate race also would provide political breathing room for Democrats, with high-profile contests in Pennsylvania and Georgia effectively tied — and, perhaps most concerning for the party, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) lagging in her reelection bid against Republican rival Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general.
Beasley, the first black chief justice of her state’s highest court, could help galvanize black voter support while grabbing support from other minority groups, along with a significant share of white voters as well. The black population of North Carolina is more than 22%, per 2020 census figures. And it’s a Southern state that’s becoming increasingly diverse. White people who are non-Hispanic made up 61.9% of the population, compared with 65.3% in 2010. In that same decade, the share of the population that is Hispanic/Latino grew the most, increasing by 1.8 percentage points to 10.2%.
Moreover, Budd, who in 2016 first won North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District, stretching from the northern suburbs of Charlotte to Greensboro, has lately faced a swath of negative headlines. Many stem from an Aug. 31, 2021, Washington Post story about the bankruptcy of an agricultural business owned by Budd’s family that “left farmers and other folks holding the bag” to the tune of more than $50 million while reportedly taking $10 million for itself.
There has been a lot less polling in the North Carolina Senate races than the high-profile contests in Georgia and Pennsylvania, along with closely fought races in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin. But a Cygnal poll gave Democrats reasons to consider spending big in North Carolina. Conducted Sept. 24-26, the poll found the Beasley-Budd race tied at 44% each. The survey of 677 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
So far, outside Democratic groups haven’t gone in big on the North Carolina Senate race. While Beasley’s campaign has far outspent Budd by nearly $9 million, outside Republican groups overall have spent $43.8 million in broadcast, digital, radio, and cable ad buys compared to Democrats’ $22.4 million, according to an analysis by AdImpact.
History of Disappointment for Democrats
It’s not hard to see why Democrats are skittish about spending limited resources on the North Carolina race. The state has repeatedly broken political hearts since former President Barack Obama won a narrow victory there in the 2008 presidential race. Also that year, Democratic Senate nominee Kay Hagan ousted GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole, suggesting North Carolina was becoming a truly competitive “New South” swing state.
Political strategists across the spectrum saw North Carolina as a new Virginia politically. Its northern neighbor backed the Republican presidential nominee in every race from 1968 to 2004. But it flipped to Obama in 2008 as more liberal voters in the Washington, D.C., suburbs, backing the Democratic ticket, overwhelmed conservative Republicans in rural areas. Virginia has become even more Democratic since then, with the party’s presidential nominees winning every four years.
North Carolina’s demographics didn’t play out the same way, politically, though. Democratic strength has grown in the Research Triangle area, home to several universities and where many life sciences companies are based, attracting professional talent from around the country, many of whom vote Democratic.
Still, North Carolina has always had a conservative core, with Republican strongholds in the western mountainous areas — along with suburbs and exurbs of Charlotte, North Carolina’s largest city and a national banking hub. Manufacturing in North Carolina, also once a major industry, has been hit hard. So, like Ohio, many onetime thriving smaller cities and towns are hallowed out, creating an opening for Trump and his acolytes to warn, accurately or not, that Democrats are to blame.
In 2012, Obama lost North Carolina, even while winning reelection nationally by a comfortable margin. Democratic presidential nominees Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden four years later also lost, even while Biden captured the White House by defeating Trump.
Hagan lasted only a single, six-year term in the Senate. She lost to Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) in 2014, and he won a second term six years later. And Burr in 2016 won reelection to his Senate seat without breaking much of a sweat.
Reasons for Democratic Optimism
North Carolina Democrats, though, haven’t been totally out of the game. They’ve had just enough success in statewide races to consider whether to try to reconcile with their political ex, so to speak.
Democrat Roy Cooper won the governorship in 2016, after 16 years as North Carolina’s attorney general. Cooper in 2020 won a second term, even as Trump beat Biden in the state, 49.93% to 48.59%.
Democrats hold three other statewide offices in North Carolina, too — Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Attorney General Josh Stein, and state Auditor Beth Wood.
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However, that hardly spells political dominance in a still conservative-leaning state. Republicans, after all, in addition to the two Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, and GOP officeholders include the state’s superintendent of public instruction, in addition to its agriculture, labor, and insurance commissioners.
But Democrats have enough of a political foothold in North Carolina to consider making a late play in the Senate race, on behalf of Beasley. This means taking a chance on reconciliation with a past political ex, rather than writing them off.
