No claim of responsibility from terror groups in Las Vegas shooting

The Route 91 music festival was a classic “soft target,” a large group of people with no reason to suspect they would be targeted at a festive event at a popular resort location. These kind of attacks are virtually impossible to prevent unless law enforcement is tipped off ahead of time, or is able to develop intelligence that someone is planning an attack.

NO CLAIM OF RESPONSIBILITY: The Site Intelligence Group tweeted this morning that as recently as five months ago the Islamic State had suggested the Las Vegas Strip as a place where Americans would be vulnerable to attack, something first suggested by an al Qaeda affiliate three years ago. “While no claim of credit yet for #LasVegasShootings, #ISIS showed Strip in May 2017 vid & #AQAP suggested city as target in Aug 2014 guide,” tweeted the group, which monitors online terrorist messaging networks.

MORE AID TO PUERTO RICO: Over the weekend the Pentagon announced that it is  continuing to ramp up the level of military support to the beleaguered residents of Puerto Rico, dispatching more ships, helicopters, and logistical support teams. Sixteen helicopters from Fort Bliss will begin arriving today on a massive C-5 cargo plane. The amphibious assault ship USS Wasp with Marine helicopters arrives tomorrow and the the hospital ship USNS Comfort is scheduled to arrive in San Juan Wednesday.

FEMA reports that of 69 hospitals, 59 are partially or fully operational. Of 1,100 retail gas stations, 714 have reopened, but there are still long lines. About 50 percent of grocery and big box stores are said to be open for business, though it’s not clear to what extent their shelves have been restocked. And so far only 11 percent of the island has cell service. A big part of the problem is that nearly two weeks after the hurricane hit, 95 percent of the island remains without power.

‘WORST I’VE EVER SEEN’: The three-star general spearheading the military’s Hurricane Maria relief efforts described the level of destruction on Puerto Rico as the “worst” he’s ever witnessed. “Sometimes we don’t know what’s going to happen until the storm actually hits, and this is the worst I’ve ever seen,” Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Buchanan, the Department of Defense’s chief military liaison with FEMA, told PBS. “The people here need help and we’re going to give them all the help that we can.”

Buchanan made the comments after surveying the damage from a helicopter, flying from Puerto Rico’s capital of San Juan to Ceiba on the southeast tip of the island. Problems with roads have been exacerbating access issues in the interior of the U.S. territory, he added. “The roads are now clear on the outside of the island, and we’re slowly working our way in,” Buchanan said. “But we obviously need to get all the roads cleared, so we can get supplies to people who desperately need them.”

TRUMP’S TWITTER TONGUE-LASHING: Over the weekend the president kept up a running Twitter tirade against what he called “Fake News or politically motivated ingrates,” in response to pleas from Puerto Rican residents and the San Juan mayor, desperate for water, food and gasoline. “We have done a great job with the almost impossible situation in Puerto Rico,” Trump tweeted. The president leveled his sharpest Twitter attack at the San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz, who criticized the initial federal response to the disaster, while praising the island’s governor Gov. Ricardo Rosselló, who was more upbeat about the relief efforts. “Such poor leadership ability by the Mayor of San Juan, and others in Puerto Rico, who are not able to get their workers to help,” Trump tweeted. “They want everything to be done for them when it should be a community effort.” But Trump had high praise for Rosselló. “Thank you to the Governor of P.R. and to all of those who are working so closely with our First Responders. Fantastic job!” Trump also singled out Rep. Jennifer Gonzalez-Colon for praise saying she “has been wonderful to deal with and a great representative of the people,” as well as Gov. Kenneth Mapp of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The president promised to visit the American Island tomorrow along with first lady Melania Trump, and said “hopefully” he will be able to stop at the U.S. Virgin Islands as well.

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

BREAKING THIS MORNING: The U.S. military reports a coalition service member was killed in Iraq and another injured when an improvised explosive device struck their vehicle yesterday. No other details were released, including the nationality of the casualty. “The names and circumstances surrounding the incident are being held pending notification of next of kin, and will be released at the discretion of the pertinent national authorities,” said a statement.

WHERE’S MARK ESPER? President Trump’s latest pick to be Army secretary, Mark Esper, has been making the rounds and meeting with key senators on Capitol Hill in recent days. But more than two months after the White House announced its intention to nominate him for the job, Esper’s confirmation hearing has yet to be scheduled. Sen. John McCain, the Armed Services chairman, said his committee will hold a confirmation hearing “pretty soon” for Esper, a Raytheon lobbyist and former Army lieutenant colonel. But the senator first wants to hear more about the administration’s war plans. “I have requested information concerning what is going on in Iraq and Afghanistan, which we have not been briefed on, so we have no other choice,” McCain told the Washington Examiner. “I want to make sure that I see it.”

ABOUT THAT INFO: McCain is set to get his Afghanistan briefing next week, potentially clearing the way for Esper’s confirmation hearing. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford are set to testify tomorrow morning at 10 before McCain’s committee on the political and security situation in Afghanistan. Then, in a rare double-header of hearings, Mattis and Dunford will move across Capitol Hill to testify at 1 p.m. before Rep. Mac Thornberry and the House Armed Services Committee on their defense strategy for Afghanistan and the region.

Meanwhile, several Armed Services members also confirmed they have already met with Esper, a strong sign that a hearing date is nearing. The committee must report the nomination to the full Senate before a final confirmation vote can be held. “This nominee for Army secretary is the real deal — he’s got Army experience, he’s got business experience, he’s got a Ph.D.,” said Sen. David Perdue, a top Trump ally on the Armed Services Committee. Some committee members said there’s growing urgency to fill the Army’s top civilian post. Sen. Thom Tillis said he was scheduled to meet with Esper and was eager to get a Trump appointee in the position.

“We need somebody quickly and unfortunately with the nominees that we’ve had who have had to withdraw … it’s pushed the process back,” Tillis said. “But we need these permanent positions in place because there is only so much that acting secretaries can do.”

CORKER ON AFGHANISTAN: American troops will remain in Afghanistan for at least another decade, said Sen. Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on Sunday. “But are we likely to have troops in Afghanistan for the next decade? Sure,” Corker said in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd aired on Sunday.

Todd noted that troops were in that country when Corker was reelected a decade ago. Corker announced last week he plans to retire from the Senate and won’t be running for reelection next year. Todd suggested his successor will still be dealing with the issues surrounding U.S. troops in Afghanistan in 2019. “The entire GDP of Afghanistan cannot support even their security forces,” Corker said. “But what matters, Chuck, is what those troops are doing.”

WASTE OF TIME: Trump said he’s told Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to stop negotiating with North Korea because “we’ll do what has to be done.”

“I told Rex Tillerson, our wonderful Secretary of State, that he is wasting his time trying to negotiate with Little Rocket Man,” Trump tweeted Sunday. “Save your energy Rex, we’ll do what has to be done!” He later tweeted: “Being nice to Rocket Man hasn’t worked in 25 years, why would it work now? Clinton failed, Bush failed, and Obama failed. I won’t fail.”

FORMER SPOX REACTS: A former Pentagon spokesman took Trump to task on Sunday for issuing directives Tillerson on North Korea via Twitter, which he suggested undermined the diplomatic efforts between Washington and Pyongyang. “What a way to run foreign policy. What a way to run international affairs,” said retired Army Col. Steve Warren on CNN. “Maybe pick up the telephone and call the secretary of state might be a better way to go about passing out your guidance on how to deal with this rogue nuclear nation.”

WARREN ON PRESS ACCESS: Warren was originally booked to talk about press receiving less access at the Pentagon, in the wake of media complaints that fewer reporters are being invited to accompany the secretary of defense on trips, and virtually no formal domestic press conferences by the secretary (although he does hold informal on-the-record meetings with reporters). Warren said Mattis has a tough line to walk given Trump’s criticism of the press as the “enemy of the people.”

“The secretary of defense is in a very tight spot, he’s walking a very tight rope,” Warren said. “On one hand, his boss, the president, has declared the press is the enemy of the people. And so, for him to speak to the press and to engage heavily with the press theoretically makes him colluding with that enemy.”

DEMOCRATS RESPOND: Democrats started hitting back at Trump’s tweets about North Korea on Sunday with tweets of their own questioning his judgment on matters of national security. “If Tillerson is wasting his time, it’s only because his boss fails to understand the catastrophic consequences of war on Korean Peninsula,” said Rep. Adam Schiff of California, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. Sen. Ed Markey jumped into the fray, tweeting that Trump should drop the bad cop routine. “Direct talks w/#NorthKorea are our best chance to freeze missile, #nuclear tests. Leave the bad cop routine in the movies, Mr. President,” Markey said, who is a stalwart in the Senate on climate change and consumer rights.

ICYMI: From the Washington Examiner, some of the national security stories that broke after press time Friday morning:

• North Korea: Trump is an ‘old war maniac’
• US orders majority of embassy staff out of Cuba after attacks on diplomats, warns Americans to stay away
• 2 US troops injured after Osprey goes down in Syria
• General running Puerto Rico response says number of troops ‘not enough’
• Jack Reed: Jim Mattis and generals stopped Trump from making ‘consequential’ North Korea decisions
• US worries about new conflict in Iraq

THE RUNDOWN

Washington Post: Illicit Cargo Exposes N. Korea’s Arms Trade

Reuters: U.S. Carrier Navigates Crowded Waters As North Korea Tensions Mount

The Hill: Ex-Defense Secretary: Diplomacy Is Worth It If It Saves One Soldier’s Life

New York Times: After Heated Exchanges, Puerto Rico Now Getting Aid Surge, Governor Says

Daily Beast: Puerto Rican troops are still waiting for orders while residents cry for help

Fox News: Coast Guard report: Captain’s errors led to El Faro sinking

New York Times: Thousands of Iraqis flee ISIS to Kurdish territory amid military offensive

AP: Melee in Catalonia as Spanish police violently attack voters

Wall Street Journal: U.S. weighs fate of Taliban political office, prompting internal objection

Politico: Trump to unleash more global arms sales

AP: Guam governor asks Defense Department to stop construction

Defense One: Q&A: Deputy commander of the war on ISIS

Reuters: Knifeman yelling ‘Allahu Akbar’ shot dead after killing two in France

DefenseTech: Cockpit episodes continue after Navy T-45s resume training flights

Calendar

MONDAY | OCT. 2

10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Public opinion on “America First” with Rep. Mike Gallagher. wilsoncenter.org

12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. A conversation with Alan Peter Cayetano, the secretary of foreign affairs for the Philippines. cfr.org

6 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Realism and democracy: American foreign policy after the Arab Spring. cfr.org

TUESDAY | OCT. 3

9:30 a.m. Dirksen 342. Nomination of John M. Mitnick to be general counsel for the Department of Homeland Security. hsgac.senate.gov

10 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Political and security situation in Afghanistan with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. Capitol Visitor Center. Issue brief launch on Ukraine’s internally displaced persons holding a key to peace with Rep. Marcy Kaptur. atlanticcouncil.org

10 a.m. House Visitor Center 210. Examining the Department of Homeland Security’s cybersecurity mission. homeland.house.gov

1 p.m. Rayburn 2118. The defense strategy in South Asia with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. armedservices.house.gov

1:30 p.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Consequences of a collapse of the Iran nuclear deal. cnas.org

2 p.m. Rayburn 2154. Innovations in security: Examining the use of canines. oversight.house.gov

2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Iraq and Syria genocide emergency relief and accountability with former Rep. Frank Wolf; Shireen, a Yazidi survivor of ISIS enslavement; and Stephen Rasche, the legal counsel of the Chaldean Catholic Archdiocese of Erbil, Iraq. foreignaffairs.house.gov

3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2212. Securing the peace after the fall of the Islamic State with Ryan Crocker, former ambassador to Iraq. armedservices.house.gov

6 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. A conversation on the Iran nuclear deal with Sen. Tom Cotton. cfr.org

WEDNESDAY | OCT. 4

10 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Countering violent extremism in the Trump era. cato.org

10 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Protecting children in armed conflict with Virginia Gamba, special representative of the United Nations secretary-general for children and armed conflict. stimson.org

10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. The Government Accountability Office review of the State Department’s anti-terrorism assistance program with Jason Bair, GAO assistant director. foreignaffairs.house.gov

11 a.m. Dirksen 419. The future of Iraq’s minorities after ISIS. foreign.senate.gov

12:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The space race and the origins of the space age with Robert Curbeam, vice president, of Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems. wilsoncenter.org

2 p.m.  Rayburn 2172. Iranian backed militias destabilizing the Middle East. foreignaffairs.house.gov

3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Escalation and deterrence in the second space age. csis.org

THURSDAY | OCT. 5

8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Health affairs breakfast with Tyler Bennett, deputy for acquisition at the U.S. Army Medical Materiel Agency, and Kathy Berst, deputy for acquisition at Army Medical Materiel Development Activity. ndia.org

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Russia’s military robots: Key trends and developments in Russia’s unmanned systems. csis.org

10:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Sixteen years and counting in Afghanistan and what’s next for America’s longest war with Hamdullah Mohib, Afghan ambassador to the United States. wilsoncenter.org

1 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Middle East crises, conflicts and the way ahead. brookings.edu

1 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Foreign affairs issue launch: Trump, the allies and the view from abroad. cfr.org

1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Bringing the Air Force into its centennial with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. csis.org

4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book launch: “The China Order: Centralia, World Empire, and the Nature of Chinese Power.” csis.org

4 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Japan’s choices and the challenges ahead post-election. wilsoncenter.org

4:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Zbigniew Brzezinski annual prize and lecture with former Vice President Joe Biden. csis.org

6 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Elliott Abrams discusses his new book, “Realism and Democracy: American Foreign Policy after the Arab Spring.” cfr.org