The early conventional wisdom around the tragedy we are witnessing in Afghanistan is that, however lamentable, it is unlikely to affect domestic politics long-term. Once the troops are home, the Biden team has intimated that they believe they will be praised by the public or that the issue will fade from the radar.
This belief is founded on two key assessments: that people are broadly in favor of withdrawal and that foreign policy is not a top-tier issue to them at any rate. And in the abstract, those assessments are not off base. But given the searing images and horrific events of the last few weeks, I believe the Afghanistan story has become something different in the hearts and minds of many people.
First, it is true that prior to the events of the last few weeks, large majorities felt remaining in Afghanistan in a significant way was no longer in our nation’s interests. Young men and women who weren’t even alive on Sept. 11 are now old enough to be deployed and risk their lives on the other side of the world for a mission that people were no longer sure of.
But public opinion on foreign policy is malleable. Respondents are much more likely to express uncertainty, and the views they do hold are more liable to shift in the face of changing events. On subjects such as healthcare or education, people have more concrete views because they deal with these things tangibly. Most people have had to negotiate with an insurance company, few have had to negotiate with Iran.
In the case of Afghanistan, that uncertainty and malleability meant that while support for withdrawal was there, it was always subject to change. None of our last three presidents, Republican or Democrat, had made a case to the public for why it was in our interests to stay, and public opinion naturally reflected that. Afghanistan had largely been out of the headlines and out of mind for people. Of course, people said they were ready to bring the troops home.
After the fall of Kabul, polling from Morning Consult showed a 20-point drop in support for withdrawal compared to where things stood in the spring. And poll after poll shows even majorities of Democrats believe the Biden administration has badly mishandled our retreat. Yes, 7 in 10 people supported withdrawal a month ago. But I do not believe that what we are witnessing is what the 7 in 10 people who supported withdrawal had in mind.
Even so, there is also the question of whether the tragedy of what is happening in Afghanistan today will have a lasting political effect. People may be alarmed at what they see on their televisions, but the midterm elections are an eternity away, and the next presidential election even more so.
Foreign policy has not been a top-tier issue in the minds of voters for some time. Stories that capture hours of cable news coverage are frequently disconnected from the lives of average people. This doesn’t just include frivolities and beltway intrigue, but in recent years has also included foreign policy and national security stories. Walking away from the Kurds, taking out Iran’s Qasem Soleimani — all very serious, none having a significant effect on domestic politics.
Biden’s strategy of avoiding controversies served him well in his campaign for president. But today, the administration seems determined to treat the Afghanistan tragedy as if it were purely a matter of concern to reporters and Twitter warriors. Last week, President Joe Biden gave brief remarks to the press and the public about the evacuation of U.S. citizens from now-Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. But lest there was any question about his priorities, he opened his remarks with a discussion of Democrats’ infrastructure and spending plans.
Treating Afghanistan like a second-tier story does not make it so. Furthermore, the unfolding tragedy badly undercuts the Biden administration’s claims of competence and commitment to rebuilding America’s standing with our allies. And people are paying attention — in a polarized era where presidential job approval is extremely stable, Biden’s sharp drop stands out.
But beyond this week, U.S. citizens in Afghanistan remain at grave risk. We have the 20th anniversary of 9/11 approaching. Eyes will stay fixed on Afghanistan, finding the Taliban in charge, imposing their will, committing atrocities, and massacring our allies who remain. Our failure to evacuate all those who aided our country safely is a moral stain on our nation that will not be wiped away.
But even if none of that has a durable effect on our domestic politics, should al Qaeda regroup as quickly as they are now expected to and launch attacks against the West, Afghanistan will become an issue that hits very close to home.
Today, we have so many issues that are top of mind for voters: stopping the continued spread of COVID-19, rebuilding the economy, and strengthening our democracy. It is easy to assume people will turn inward and move on from what has unfolded in Afghanistan.
And in the words of Kill Bill’s Beatrix Kiddo: “Any other time, you’d be 100% right.”
Kristen Soltis Anderson is a pollster and founding partner of Echelon Insights.
