HERE’S HOW BADLY Republican prospects for holding the House of Representatives in 2000 have deteriorated: A new poll suggests that even a solid victory in the presidential race by George W. Bush wouldn’t guarantee GOP control. “Everyone is trying to put the best face on it,” says a Republican operative. But there is a mood of alarm among Republicans. It was reflected in the presence of Maria Cino at a strategy session in Washington in early November. Cino lives in Austin, Texas, where she is the political director of Bush’s campaign. She was a top campaign adviser to House Republicans in the heady years leading up to 1994, when they took over the House. Now, the headiness is gone, and Republicans need help. The assessment that came out of the meeting with Cino is that Republicans will lose the House by five or six seats.
Six months ago, after experiencing a post-impeachment surge in popularity, Republicans figured they’d keep the House, despite the slimness of their current majority, just five votes. Polls showed they’d reached parity with Democrats on voter preference for the House in 2000. The man many Republicans thought had caused a lot of their troubles in Congress, Newt Gingrich, was gone. And Tom Davis of Virginia, the chairman of the House Republican Congressional Committee, was credited with recruiting strong candidates for open and vulnerable Democratic seats next year.
Things changed quickly. The issue agenda turned sharply against Republicans. Their best issues — crime, welfare, national security — are dormant. Their hopes of galvanizing voters with a $ 792 billion tax cut were dashed when an effort to market the tax measure over the summer failed to stir grass-roots enthusiasm. President Clinton then vetoed the measure with impunity, and Republicans aren’t sure why the tax fight turned out as it did. The best explanation is that millions of taxpayers are flush with earnings from stock market gains and don’t feel pinched by taxes. Absent a market crash, this will remain true in 2000.
Anyway, the Democratic agenda took over: gun control, health care, education, Social Security, Medicare. When these issues are front and center, Republicans play defense. Speaker Dennis Hastert has done his best to minimize the harm. His strategy is to “get as many [Democratic bills] as possible off the table this year,” says an adviser. But several, notably the patients’ bill of rights and gun control, will be back in 2000. Under Hastert, Republicans also took the edge off the Social Security and education issues. But these remain Democratic themes, and the best Republicans can do is neutralize them.
Most alarming of all to Republicans is the Democrats’ single-minded focus on winning back the House. Minority leader Richard Gephardt has talked numerous Democrats out of retiring or running for higher office, thereby reducing the number of open Democratic seats that are easier for Republicans to win. Republican retirements, in contrast, have soared. Of the 24 open House seats, 19 are Republican. In at least 3 of the GOP seats, Democrats are favored. Republicans have a good shot now only at the Michigan seat being vacated by Debbie Stabenow, who’s running for the Senate. Among GOP incumbents, one is in deep trouble (Merrill Cook of Utah) and a few others in jeopardy.
The Democrats’ concentration on the House is even more evident in fund-raising and outside help. Democrats have little chance of taking the Senate (now 55-45 Republican) and they’re pessimistic about the White House. So they’re channeling money to the House. Labor is targeting three dozen Republican seats. “The union operation is already ginned up,” says GOP pollster Frank Luntz. “I see no equivalent operation by business. If you think unions were effective in 1996 and 1998, it’s nothing compared to what they’ll do in 2000.”
The 1999 election results didn’t give Republicans any encouragement either. In 1993, Republican George Allen won a smashing victory for governor of Virginia, running on conservative themes that GOP congressional candidates repeated a year later. The 1993 results were a precursor to triumph in 1994. This year, Republicans narrowly won the legislature in Virginia but lost elsewhere. The Mississippi governor’s race was the key test. Republican Mike Parker ran on personality and leadership. Lieutenant governor Ronnie Musgrove ran on education and quality of life issues, stirred a large black turnout, and won. Republicans should pray 1999 wasn’t a precursor.
House Republicans have a designated savior, Bush. They assume he’ll be the GOP presidential nominee, though that’s hardly a certainty. “If Bush wins by 8 points or more, we probably retain the House,” a Republican strategist says. “If it’s 6 points or less, we start to get into trouble. If it’s 7 points, flip a coin.” This may be optimistic. In a September poll, Luntz asked if voters favored a Republican president and a Democratic Congress, and 12 percent said yes. “That scared the hell out of me,” Luntz said. “It shows how Gov. Bush can carry the White House by 10 or 12 points and Republicans still lose the House.”
Bush may yet play godfather to House Republicans. His aides have told GOP strategists that he doesn’t want his agenda stymied by a Democratic House. In Texas, he faces exactly that, and one result was a substantially pared-down tax cut and modified education program. To avert this, Bush has promised to direct a disproportionate amount of general election spending to 30 pivotal House districts. The money — a minimum of $ 30 million — would go for TV ads and organizing. This could help, and heaven knows Republicans need it.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
