MATTIS, DUNFORD ON THE HILL: More than a month ago, President Trump announced his new strategy in Afghanistan, a plan to turn the tide in the war that entered its 17th year this month. Today, his top two military officials, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford, appear together in two public hearings before the Senate and House armed services committees to explain how the strategy shift is about more than just sending about 3,000 more U.S. troops. No doubt lawmakers in both chambers will want to know specifics on how the broad policy goals unveiled by Trump in August will be turned into a realistic battle plan to turn back a resurgent Taliban, defeat the Islamic State and shore up a central government that is fighting in more than half its provinces and controls only about 60 percent of Afghanistan. In a sign of the deteriorating security situation, dozens of rockets were fired at the Kabul airport after Mattis and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg arrived last week to meet with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. They meet with senators at 10 a.m. and with the House at 1 p.m.
MISSILE DEFENSE: The House Armed Services Committee, chaired by Rep. Mac Thornberry, will likely press Mattis and Dunford on the North Korean nuclear missile threat and what the Pentagon sees in the future for U.S. missile defense. The committee has proposed a defense budget that boosts the Trump administration request for missile defense by $2.5 billion for space sensors, more Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and Patriot interceptors, and for the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system. Dunford testified last week before the Senate committee, letting slip an unannounced internal Pentagon plan to shift about $400 million to missile defense, and was peppered with North Korea questions.
DEADLY T-45 CRASH: On the Senate side, Sen. John McCain had threatened to hold up the nomination hearing for Trump’s pick to be Army secretary, Raytheon top lobbyist Mark Esper, until he received a briefing on the Afghanistan plans. McCain has said the U.S. is not winning there and must do more quickly. But he may question Mattis about another of his top concerns: The growing string of recent military mishaps, including a deadly Navy T-45 training jet crash in Tennessee on Sunday night, and their connection to years of defense budget caps and stopgap budget resolutions. “My heart goes out to families of 2 Navy pilots who died in T-45 crash in TN. We must address mil readiness crisis,” McCain tweeted on Monday. McCain has been quick to blame the incidents on systemic readiness issues caused by underfunding defense, but Mattis has been more cautions, saying he is not ready to draw a “direct line” between the budget and mishaps.
The Navy issued a one-day stand down of a squadron of T-45 trainers at Naval Air Station Meridian in Mississippi after the deadly crash. The T-45C Goshawk was assigned to Training Air Wing 1 and was reported missing Sunday night. A search Monday morning near Tellico Plains in the Cherokee National Forest revealed the crash site. “Two pilots were aboard the aircraft, an instructor and a student. The pilots did not survive the incident,” said a statement from the Chief of Naval Air Training. The T-45s, which are used to train Navy and Marine Corps pilots, were all grounded this year after a spike in oxygen deprivation incidents and a boycott by pilots, before the restrictions were later lifted.
WEIGHING ISIS’ CLAIM: Terrorism experts are reacting cautiously to an Islamic State claim that the gunman behind the mass shooting in Las Vegas Sunday night was a “soldier” of the terrorist group who had converted to Islam months ago. The FBI has said that so far there is no evidence of any connection to international terrorism. The ISIS claim came within hours of the massacre in which at least 59 people were killed, and more than 500 wounded. The SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors extremist messaging sites, said Monday afternoon that the 64-year-old shooter, Stephen Paddock, had been given the nom de guerre Abu Abdul Barr al-Amriki by ISIS.
But ISIS has a history of inflated and inaccurate claims, warns Matthew Levitt, director of The Washington Institute’s Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. “They are quite liberal with their claims of responsibility because truth is really not important to them,” Levitt said. “What is important to them is the media effect, of spinning up the media and creating a sense in the public that they are everywhere or maybe they are everywhere, that their ability to inspire attacks continues even in the face of battlefield defeat, first in Mosul and now we are seeing Raqqa.”
‘PURE EVIL’: Trump condemned the Sunday night mass shooting that claimed killed 59 people and wounded 527 others as “an act of pure evil.” Trump plans to go to Las Vegas tomorrow to meet with first responders from the attack. “We are joined together today in sadness, shock and grief,” Trump said in his first public remarks on the shooting yesterday morning. “In moments of tragedy and harm, America comes together as one, and it always has,” he said. “We call upon the bonds that unite us: of faith, of family, and our shared values.”
WAS IT TERRORISM? The question of whether the deadliest mass murder in modern U.S. history qualifies as a terrorist attack hinges on the motive of the attacker. Was Paddock a mentally ill individual who went on a crazy killing spree for no reason? Or did he have a political or social goal? A wealthy retiree, with a penchant for high-stakes gambling, and no criminal record or known ties to terrorists, Paddock doesn’t fit the usual profile of a disenfranchised person who is attracted to radical ideology. That leaves the biggest unanswered question: Why?
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
HAPPENING TODAY: The massacre in Las Vegas pushed the plight of Puerto Ricans off the cable news networks yesterday, but today the focus shifts back to the relief efforts as the president and first lady Melania Trump visit the U.S. territory as it reels from the devastation from Hurricane Maria. Trump departs from Joint Base Andrews this morning, arriving in the capital San Juan in early afternoon. The president is scheduled to get a briefing on relief efforts, and then hear firsthand from some of the people who have been affected by the powerful storm. “We are going to be seeing all of the first responders, the military, FEMA, and, frankly, most importantly, we’re going to be seeing the people of Puerto Rico,” Trump said yesterday. Aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge, Trump will meet with two governors, Ricardo Rosselló of Puerto Rico, and Kenneth Mapp of the US Virgin Islands, after which he’ll meet with sailors and Marines on the ship’s flight deck.
Trump has no plans to meet with San Juan’s mayor, Carmen Yulín Cruz, who he disparaged in weekend tweets, and he defended the administration’s relief efforts. “It’s been amazing what’s been done in a very short period of time on Puerto Rico, Trump said. “There’s never been a piece of land that we’ve known that was so devastated. The bridges are down, the telecommunications was nonexistent, and it’s in very, very bad shape. The electrical grid, as you know, was totally destroyed.”
NEW DIA CHIEF: Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan presides over a change of command ceremony this afternoon as current Defense Intelligence Agency director Marine Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart turns over the reins of the Pentagon’s inhouse spy agency to Army Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley. The ceremony, which is technically a “change of directorship” will take place at DIA headquarters at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling, at 3 p.m.
U.S. SOLDIER KILLED IN IRAQ: The Pentagon has identified the U.S. service member killed Sunday in Iraq as Army Spc. Alexander W. Missildine, 20, of Tyler, Texas. Missildine died from wounds sustained after an improvised explosive device detonated near his convoy in Ninawa Province. Another American was wounded in the incident. Missildine was assigned to the 710th Brigade Support Battalion, 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division (Light Infantry), Fort Polk, La. He is the fourth U.S. service member to be killed as part of Operation Inherent Resolve.
TRANSGENDER LEGAL ACTION: Plaintiffs in a federal lawsuit filed against Trump, including four active-duty troops, have asked a California federal court to block the president from enacting a ban on transgender military service while their case is being heard. “We must use every tool in our power to fight this ban immediately, here in California and throughout the country,” said Shannon Minter, the legal director for the National Center for Lesbian Rights. The motion for a preliminary injunction in Stockman v. Trump is the latest in the unfolding legal battle that started with Trump’s tweets announcing a transgender ban in late July. Four federal lawsuits in California, D.C., Maryland and Washington state are pending against the president and top defense officials, including Mattis.
Minter’s group also helped file the first federal lawsuit opposing the ban, Doe v. Trump, on Aug. 9 in D.C. district court, as well as a subsequent preliminary injunction motion. Plaintiffs in that lawsuit include five transgender service members. The Trump administration has a Wednesday deadline to respond to the injunction request.
CONFIDENCE IN REX: White House press secretary Sarah Sanders says the president still has confidence in Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, despite Trump’s weekend tweets that appeared to undercut the nation’s top diplomat. “He does, yes,” Sanders said at yesterday’s White House. Sanders said she believed Trump has spoken with Tillerson since his Sunday social media posts, but added “I’ll have to verify.”
Trump’s tweets included: “I told Rex Tillerson, our wonderful Secretary of State, that he is wasting his time trying to negotiate with Little Rocket Man.” That, after Tillerson confirmed the U.S. has been in contact with Pyongyang.
NOT NEGOTIATING: Sanders clarified that the U.S. is only willing to discuss the return of three Americans detained by North Korea, not negotiate over North Korea’s nuclear or missile programs. “We’ve been clear that now is not the time to talk,” she said. “The only conversations that have taken place or that would would be on bringing back Americans who have been detained, like with Otto. Those were the type of conversations that this administration would be willing to have. Beyond that, there will be no conversations with North Korea at this time.” Otto Warmbier was the American student detained by North Korea last year and transferred back to the U.S. with severe brain damage this year, days before dying.
U.S. CHECKS OUT RUSSIAN FACILITY, AGAIN: U.S. officials on Monday “conducted a walkthrough” of Russia’s consulate in San Francisco, drawing new accusations of mischief from Moscow one month after the United States closed the facility. Russia denounced the inspection as an illegal “invasion” of territory protected by diplomatic agreements. The incident is the latest in a spat that has lasted more than a year, dating back to President Barack Obama’s retaliation against Russian interference in the 2016 elections. “The State Department will secure and maintain the properties in keeping with our responsibilities,” a State Department spokesperson told the Washington Examiner. “Entry or access to the office space will be granted only by the Department of State.”
Russian diplomats accused the United States of “trespassing on the grounds of the Russian diplomatic facility” in social media posts accompanied by video of the entrances. “After breaking Russian diplomatic property’s gates lock, the intruders got inside,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a post.
F-35 BOMB SALE TO AUSSIES: The State Department has green-lit a potential $815 million sale of 3,900 GBU-53/B Small Diameter Bomb Increment II, or SDB II, to Australia. The bombs, built by Raytheon, can be carried by the fifth-generation F-35A fighters the United States is developing with Australia. This sale would benefit the U.S. by helping a major non-NATO ally that is “an important force for political stability and economic progress in the Western Pacific,” the Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in its announcement.
THE RUNDOWN
Defense News: DoD: No active duty victims in Las Vegas shooting, shooter non-military
Washington Post: The Las Vegas shooter had 17 guns. Here’s what we know about them.
New York Times: A nuclear deal with North Korea may be Tillerson’s mission impossible
Wall Street Journal: Between War And Acceptance, A Third Way On North Korea
Politico: Iran’s Foreign Minister Has Some Things He Wants to Say to Donald Trump
AP: U.S. army chief says Russia war games broke observer rules
USNI News: HII awarded $29.4M planning contract for USS Fitzgerald restoration; Total repairs estimated at $370M
War on the Rocks: North Korea benefits from nuclear weapons. Get used to it.
UPI: Metal Shark wins Navy contract for patrol boats
Foreign Policy: Report: Hypersonic missiles could trigger a war
USA Today: U.S. coalition slashes ISIS oil revenue by more than 90%
Reuters: Iraqi Forces Seize Air Base From Islamic State Near Hawija
Wall Street Journal: Trial opens for women accused of murdering Kim Jong Nam
Navy Times: US MQ-9 drone shot down in Yemen
Reuters: Special report: HP Enterprise let Russia scrutinize cyber defense system used by Pentagon
The Diplomat: China’s First 5th Generation Fighter Jet Is Operational
Calendar
TUESDAY | OCT. 3
9:30 a.m. Dirksen 342. Nomination of John M. Mitnick to be general counsel for the Department of Homeland Security. hsgac.senate.gov
10 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Political and security situation in Afghanistan with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. Capitol Visitor Center. Issue brief launch on Ukraine’s internally displaced persons holding a key to peace with Rep. Marcy Kaptur. atlanticcouncil.org
10 a.m. House Visitor Center 210. Examining the Department of Homeland Security’s cybersecurity mission. homeland.house.gov
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Russian information warfare and an advancing front of disinformation and propaganda with Aureliu CioCoi, the ambassador of Moldova; Arnoldas Pikžirnis, adviser to the prime minister of Lithuania; and Olevs Nikers, chief expert for the Latvia minister of defense. heritage.org
1 p.m. Rayburn 2118. The defense strategy in South Asia with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. armedservices.house.gov
1:30 p.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Consequences of a collapse of the Iran nuclear deal. cnas.org
2 p.m. Rayburn 2154. Innovations in security: Examining the use of canines. oversight.house.gov
2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Iraq and Syria genocide emergency relief and accountability with former Rep. Frank Wolf; Shireen, a Yazidi survivor of ISIS enslavement; and Stephen Rasche, the legal counsel of the Chaldean Catholic Archdiocese of Erbil, Iraq. foreignaffairs.house.gov
3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2212. Securing the peace after the fall of the Islamic State with Ryan Crocker, former ambassador to Iraq. armedservices.house.gov
6 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. A conversation on the Iran nuclear deal with Sen. Tom Cotton. cfr.org
WEDNESDAY | OCT. 4
10 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Countering violent extremism in the Trump era. cato.org
10 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Protecting children in armed conflict with Virginia Gamba, special representative of the United Nations secretary-general for children and armed conflict. stimson.org
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. The Government Accountability Office review of the State Department’s anti-terrorism assistance program with Jason Bair, GAO assistant director. foreignaffairs.house.gov
11 a.m. Dirksen 419. The future of Iraq’s minorities after ISIS. foreign.senate.gov
12:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The space race and the origins of the space age with Robert Curbeam, vice president, of Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems. wilsoncenter.org
2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Iranian backed militias destabilizing the Middle East. foreignaffairs.house.gov
3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Escalation and deterrence in the second space age. csis.org
THURSDAY | OCT. 5
8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Health affairs breakfast with Tyler Bennett, deputy for acquisition at the U.S. Army Medical Materiel Agency, and Kathy Berst, deputy for acquisition at Army Medical Materiel Development Activity. ndia.org
9 a.m. Rayburn 2172. The Rohingya crisis and the U.S. response to the tragedy in Burma. foreignaffairs.house.gov
9 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Release of the 2018 Index of U.S. Military Strength with Rep. Mac Thornberry, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. heritage.org
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Russia’s military robots: Key trends and developments in Russia’s unmanned systems. csis.org
10:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Sixteen years and counting in Afghanistan and what’s next for America’s longest war with Hamdullah Mohib, Afghan ambassador to the United States. wilsoncenter.org
1 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Middle East crises, conflicts and the way ahead. brookings.edu
1 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Foreign affairs issue launch: Trump, the allies and the view from abroad. cfr.org
1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Bringing the Air Force into its centennial with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. csis.org
4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book launch: “The China Order: Centralia, World Empire, and the Nature of Chinese Power.” csis.org
4 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Japan’s choices and the challenges ahead post-election. wilsoncenter.org
4:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Zbigniew Brzezinski annual prize and lecture with former Vice President Joe Biden. csis.org
6 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Elliott Abrams discusses his new book, “Realism and Democracy: American Foreign Policy after the Arab Spring.” cfr.org
TUESDAY | OCT. 10
8 a.m. 1919 North Lynn St. Quarterly procurement division meeting. ndia.org
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Formulating national security strategy with retired Lt. Gen. Robert Schmidle, the former deputy director of DOD’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation; Andrew Hoehn, senior vice president at the Rand Corp.; and Christine Wormuth, former under secretary of defense for policy. csis.org
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The path forward for dealing with North Korea. brookings.edu
10:30 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Afghanistan going forward, whether to surge, negotiate or get out, with Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; Stephen Biddle, professor at George Washington University; and Maxwell Pappas, a U.S. Army major with three combat tours in Afghanistan and Iraq. cato.org
11 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Kurdish crisis: Baghdad, Irbil, and institutional reform in Iraq with Stuart Jones, former U.S. ambassador to Iraq. atlanticcouncil.org
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book discussion on “Illusions of Victory: The Anbar Awakening and the Rise of the Islamic State” with author Carter Malkasian. csis.org
3:30 p.m. Cannon 121. The Iran nuclear deal and assessing the impact of decertification. cato.org
