President Obama’s average annual approval rating dropped to its lowest level ever in 2011, sinking to 44 percent for 2011, according to the Gallup Poll.
Obama’s annual average in 2010 was 47 percent and for 2009, his first year in office, the average was 57 percent. All of these averages combine Gallup’s weekly ratings, then averages them over the 12 months.
If there is any consolation for Obama in the Gallup figures, it’s the fact his average is significantly higher than that of Jimmy Carter, who hit a third-year figure of 37.4 percent. Obama may also be reassured by the fact that President Reagan’s figure for his third year was 45 percent.
The most popular president of the polling era at the end of his third year was Eisenhower, who had a 72 percent figure.
But there is one huge difference between how the third-year averages were arrived at for Eisenhower and every other president before Obama: The Obama figure is based on 351 daily samplings whereas the previous chief executives’ figures were based upon far fewer samplings. Eisenhower’s, for example, was derived from only 15 polls taken by Gallup during the year.
What do these figures tell us about Obama’s re-election chances? Gallup suggests the most significant indicator will actually be how Obama does during the current quarter:
“All presidents since Eisenhower who were re-elected, including Lyndon Johnson, who assumed office after John Kennedy’s death, averaged above 50% during the period of Jan. 20-April 19 of the election year. The three presidents who were not re-elected — Gerald Ford (who took office after Nixon’s resignation), Carter, and the elder Bush — were below 50% at that time, and remained below that threshold up to the election,” Gallup said.
For more from Gallup, go here.
