Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey is burdened with a complicated dilemma as he plots to replace the late Republican Sen. John McCain, an iconic figure who died in office after a battle with brain cancer.
Ducey, a Republican up for re-election this fall, is disinclined to appoint a caretaker, which would seem to reduce the prospects of selecting from within the McCain family. The governor is leaning toward a successor who would commit to running for the remainder of the late senator’s sixth, six-year term in a special election in 2020 and position the party to hold seat in a competitive presidential cycle.
Add to that criteria the pressure Ducey is under to appoint a Republican who earns the approval of President Trump and his loyal, Arizona base of anti-establishment conservatives, and the list the governor has to choose from gets really short, really fast.
“It’s very sticky for him because he’s got to satisfy different collections of Republicans,” Jan Brewer, a Republican and Ducey’s predecessor in the governor’s mansion, told the Washington Examiner in an interview.
McCain died Saturday after a yearlong bout with a particularly aggressive form of brain cancer. Ducey immediately announced that he would not appoint a successor until a week of memorial services, and his funeral and burial at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Md., scheduled for Sunday, had concluded.
Under Arizona law, the governor must select an appointee who is of the same political party as McCain, although Ducey hardly needed that inducement to choose a Republican. Because McCain passed away so close to the 2018 midterm elections, the special election state law requires to determine his permanent successor will be held in November of 2020.
[Opinion: Meghan McCain would be a great Senate replacement for her father]
Those familiar with Ducey’s thinking expect him to at least consult with McCain’s family and attempt to choose a Republican who would honor the late senator’s legacy on certain, though not all, aspects of domestic and foreign policy. Ducey also wants a pick that would emulate McCain’s close attention to mundane but important Arizona specific issues, such as water policy.
“The governor understands the magnitude of this decision,” said Glenn Hamer, president and CEO of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry. “He had a very close relationship with Sen. McCain.”
There is no shortage of Republicans who want to get the call from Ducey.
But connected GOP insiders in Arizona say the two who most satisfy the top priorities on the governor’s check list are Brewer and former Rep. Matt Salmon. Neither is publicly campaigning for the appointment, another plus in their column.
It’s unclear if Brewer or Salmon are secretly interested.
“Matt Salmon would make a great candidate to run for statewide office and has always talked about his love for Arizona and running in a statewide race,” said Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., who heads the insurgent House Freedom Caucus and his close friends with the former congressman. “However, any conversations about replacing John McCain have been nonexistent.”
Brewer said she had “no personal inclination” to go to Washington and serve in the Senate, which incidentally, is exactly the right thing to say if she wants Ducey’s appointment. “I would think that it would be an awesome job to hold. Huge responsibility, but I don’t believe Gov. Ducey would appoint me.”
There’s some speculation that McCain’s wife, Cindy McCain, could get the nod. The question, beyond her interest, is whether she makes sense given the competing concerns Ducey is weighing as he mulls the appointment. “I think Cindy could handle the job,” Brewer said. “She’s very, very intelligent and well-spoken, and been by John’s side. She knows a lot of policy stuff, and she knows her way around Washington too. I’d be perfectly content with Cindy.”
If McCain could choose, he probably would have selected Rep. Martha McSally, a pragmatic Republican who won tough races in a battleground House district. Indeed, the congresswoman might have been Ducey’s obvious go-to had she not jumped into the race for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Jeff Flake earlier this year.
McSally is the frontrunner in Tuesday’s Republican primary, appearing to outpace her two anti-establishment opponents: Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio, the former Maricopa County Sheriff and a Trump ally. If McSally wins, she’ll face Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in November.
Notably, Trump is neutral in the primary, perhaps acknowledging that McSally is the only candidate who can win a general election against Sinema in a midterm environment that is inhospitable to the GOP. It also likely had something to do with McSally’s strategic decision to align herself with the president once she entered the Senate race.
Though happy about the expected outcome of the 2018 primary, Republican insiders worry that Ward will turn right around and start running in the 2020 special election. Party strategists consider Ward unelectable in a general election under almost any scenario, putting the onus on Ducey to appoint a successor to McCain who can outflank her on the Right while remaining viable with the broader electorate.
“You need somebody who is going to take this job and become the biggest U.S. Senator they can be in two years, raise [lots of money] and really put a stranglehold on the seat and on the Republican base,” a GOP strategist in Arizona said. “There are not a lot of good choices.”
