Moulton, a presidential candidate and former Marine infantry officer, noted the 120,000 troops in a Pentagon contingency plan is about the same number sent to Iraq in 2003. “And we’re even operating under the same authorization for the use of military force that was fashioned back in 9/11 and used to get us into Iraq.”

DETERRENCE, NOT PROVOCATION: “It sounds like some of that is a little bit of the ‘blame America first’ crowd. I think us having a strong stand in the Middle East, frankly, makes armed conflict less likely,” countered Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill. “So I think to actually go in with a position of strength, which I know is new in the last decade, to say, ‘If you touch us there’s going to be a high cost,’ I think it actually makes military force much less likely.”

WHAT INTELLIGENCE?: Senior congressional leaders are scheduled to get a briefing later today from intelligence officials on the nature of the threats that alarmed the Pentagon.

CNN, NBC, the Washington Post, and the New York Times have all quoted sources saying that overhead imagery shows missiles loaded onto small boats in the Persian Gulf by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and orders from Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sanction attacks on U.S. forces and diplomatic facilities by proxy forces.

Exactly what to make of the intelligence is “a subject of fierce debate among the White House, the Pentagon, the C.I.A. and America’s allies,” said the Times, while the Post quotes sources saying Trump is “frustrated with some of his top advisers, who he thinks could rush the United States into a military confrontation with Iran and shatter his long-standing pledge to withdraw from costly foreign wars.”

NO INFIGHTING: President Trump disputed the accounts of discord among his advisers and said he alone calls the shots.

“The Fake News Washington Post, and even more Fake News New York Times, are writing stories that there is infighting with respect to my strong policy in the Middle East. There is no infighting whatsoever,” wrote Trump in a pair of tweets. “Different opinions are expressed and I make a decisive and final decision — it is a very simple process. All sides, views, and policies are covered. I’m sure that Iran will want to talk soon.”

DEEP MISTRUST: Given the ambiguous nature of intelligence and its past misuse, many members of Congress remain deeply skeptical.

“I do not trust the president. He is a pathological liar on most everything,” Rep. John Garamendi, D-Calif., said on CNN yesterday, telling Brooke Baldwin he believes British Maj. Gen. Chris Ghika had it right, despite being rebuked by the United States for his Tuesday Pentagon briefing.

“What I heard is information that indicates that there is a threat, but it’s the same threat that was there six months ago, a year ago, and, in fact, is less because ISIS is defeated,” said Garamendi. “Yes, there are concerns in Iraq. Do we need an aircraft carrier to deal with those? Do we need B-52 bombers? Or do we have the drumbeat of war here? Are we headed for a Gulf of Tonkin situation? I believe we may very well be in that situation.”

But in an interview that aired on CNN’s international network, Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., said the intelligence is not being distorted. “I have to say, the intelligence that we’ve seen on the Senate Intelligence Committee does show a heightened threat throughout the region.”

“When I served in Iraq, one of the most deadly weapons that we faced were roadside bombs that were manufactured in Iran and then smuggled into Iraq. More than 500 American soldiers were killed at the hands of those Iranian bombs,” Cotton told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. “And now, we have seen credible indications that Iran may be planning to strike either through its own forces or through its proxy forces in the region against the United States personnel or our allies in the region.”

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY: The National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service is holding two public hearings today on how to lessen the divide between the military and civilian society and how to get more young people with critical skills to consider military service.

The commission is an 11-member bipartisan body charged with taking a comprehensive look at military, national, and public service, in particular whether women should be subject to the draft. It will give its final recommendations to Congress, the president, and the public next March.

‘LIKE TAKING CANDY FROM A BABY’: The outrage was unbounded at yesterday’s House Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing, as the chairman of TransDigm was ripped for what the Pentagon’s acquisition chief called “a disgraceful business model” that gouges taxpayers by reaping millions in excess profits.

“TransDigm’s basic business model consists of identifying relatively small companies that make spare parts for the military — especially parts that no other companies make,” said Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., in his opening statement. “TransDigm then buys up these small companies, purchases the rights to produce their products, and then jacks up the prices. The Pentagon has to pay, knowing that they have a monopoly.”

One whistleblower told committee staffers that overcharging the Pentagon was like “taking candy from a baby.”

A Department of Defense inspector general review found the excess profits ranged from 17 to more than 4,000%, or $16.1 million between January 2015 and January 2017.

The price gouging is not illegal, but that’s not the point, said Khanna in questioning Nicholas Howley, the company’s executive chairman and founder.

“Your big risk is that Fox and Friends will cover this and you’ll have a presidential tweet asking you to pay back the money,” said Khanna. “The company is worth $1.2 billion, why not just pay back $16 million dollars?”

“We’re still evaluating that,” said Howley, whose company is the subject of a securities class-action lawsuit.

TRUMP TO S. KOREA: In an attempt to regain momentum in the stalled denuclearization talks with North Korea, President Trump will meet with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Seoul next month before heading to Osaka, Japan, for the G20 summit.

“President Trump and President Moon will continue their close coordination on efforts to achieve the final, fully verified denuclearization of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,” said a statement from the White House. “The two leaders will also discuss ways to strengthen the United States – Republic of Korea alliance and the friendship between our two peoples.”

The meeting comes after North Korea launched two missile tests this month, which Trump dismissed as inconsequential. “They’re short-range and I don’t consider that a breach of trust at all,” Trump said in an interview with Politico. “These were short-range missiles and very standard stuff. Very standard.”

MENENDEZ SPARS OVER ARMS: Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., grew increasingly frustrated as he questioned Andrea Thompson, the State Department’s point person on arms control, at yesterday’s Foreign Relations Committee hearing on arms control after the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

Menendez gasped “Oh my God” when Thompson refused to answer what she said was a hypothetical question about whether Russia could target the United States with hundreds or perhaps thousands of additional nuclear warheads.

“That is a great question for Russia, senator,” said Thompson.

“No, that is a great question for you,” Menendez shot back. “The disdain that the State Department shows when they come here, I do not appreciate.”

Menendez, along with senators Jack Reed, D-R.I., and Mark Warner, D-Va., has introduced legislation calling for a five-year extension of New START until 2026 unless the president determines Russia is in material breach of the treaty.

DEMS ATTEMPT TO CURB TRUMP’S EMERGENCY POWERS: In a tacit acknowledgment that President Trump acted within the law when he used an emergency declaration to take money from military construction accounts to fund border barrier improvements, a group of House Democrats wants to change the law.

Their bill would limit the Pentagon’s authority to repurpose funds that were designated for military construction by capping national emergency military construction at $250 million per emergency. The rules would also be changed to require additional congressional notification and a waiting period following the notification.

The bill is sponsored by Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., Adam Smith, D-Wash., and John Garamendi, D-Calif.

“The Administration’s willful abuse of power to unilaterally enact misguided policy like building a wall on the southern border is Exhibit A in this administration’s overreach,” said Gallego. “This bill will ensure that the armed services will no longer be a bottomless piggy bank for the President’s worst political impulses.”

MILITARY TO BUILD TENT CITIES: NBC News reports that the U.S. military is going to provide tents to house 7,500 migrants at six locations near the border.

“The tents will probably not be on military bases, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement, not the military, will be responsible for migrant detention and custodial support,” the report said, citing a statement from Pentagon spokesman Maj. Chris Mitchell. The Department of Homeland Security asked the Department of Defense to loan and erect the tents and “provide contracting support” to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, “for which ICE will reimburse DOD,” Mitchell said.

NEW AF SEC: The Pentagon announced yesterday that Undersecretary of the Air Force Matthew Donovan will take over as acting secretary on June 1 when Heather Wilson resigns to become the president of the University of Texas at El Paso.

“In her two years as secretary, Heather defined the Air Force the nation needs and made incredible progress in implementing the strategy to get us there,” Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said in a statement. “It is fitting that a key member of her leadership team will assume her role to keep the momentum going. Matt will do a fantastic job.”

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Trump issues executive order to protect US networks amid China spying concerns

Reuters: U.S. Believes Iran Encouraged Tanker Attacks: U.S. Sources

Reuters: Tanker Unloads Iranian Fuel Oil At China Port After Near Five-Month Trek

Defense News: For Shanahan, it looks like a rocky road to defense secretary

Military Times: SecAF Wilson: Mattis’ Departure Made it Easier for Me to Resign

USNI News: Former Navy Intel Officer: Chinese Navy ‘Very Competent,’ Getting Better

Roll Call: Administration wants to reimburse Taliban’s travel expenses

New York Times: In North Korea, Worst Drought in Decades Adds to Food Crisis

Washington Post: Khashoggi fiancee criticizes Trump’s response to killing of Saudi journalist

Real Clear Defense: In Building the Wall, White House Digs Deeper Hole for the Military

The Diplomat: Russia’s Second Poseidon Underwater Drone-Carrying Submarine to Be Launched in 2020

Calendar

THURSDAY | MAY 16

8 a.m. 2401 M St N.W. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/ourevents

8:30 a.m. 300 First St. S.E. Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Nuclear Deterrence Series discussion with John Rood, undersecretary of defense for policy. www.mitchellaerospacepower.org

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Department of Defense’s Financial Improvement and Audit Remediation Plan: The Path Forward.” Witnesses: Defense Undersecretary/Comptroller David Norquist; Thomas Harker, assistant secretary of the Navy for financial management and comptroller; John Roth, assistant secretary of the Air Force for financial management and comptroller; and John Whitley, assistant secretary of the Army for financial management and comptroller. armedservices.house.gov

12 p.m. National Press Club, 529 14th St. N.W. Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences Chair of Tropical Medicine Dr. David Brett-Major moderates a panel and speaks at the Texas A&M University and the George H.W. Bush School of Government & Public Service’s Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs’ 3rd annual Pandemic and Biosecurity Forum.

12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave N.W. Hudson Institute event: “Benefits and Ramifications of America’s Proxy Wars.” Speakers: Candace Rondeaux, Center on the Future of War; Abbas Kadhim, Atlantic Council; C. Anthony Pfaff, U.S. Army War College; and Michael Pregent, senior fellow, Hudson Institute. www.hudson.org/events

11:30 a.m. 1667 K Street N.W. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments’ new report “Sustaining the Fight: Resilient Maritime Logistics for a New Era” is discussed with Navy Secretary Richard V. Spencer. csbaonline.org/about/events

1 p.m. 1100 New York Ave. N.W. National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service holds a hearing on “Increasing Awareness Among Young Americans and Lessening the Civil-Military Divide.” inspire2serve.gov

2:30 p.m. House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Military Personnel Management – How Are the Military Services Adapting to Recruit, Retain, and Manage High Quality Talent to Meet the Needs of a Modern Military?” Witnesses: James Stewart, performing the duties of the under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness; Lt. Gen. Thomas Seamands, Army deputy chief of staff; Vice Adm. Robert Burke, chief of naval personnel; Lt. Gen. Brian Kelly, Air Force deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel and services, United States Air Force; and Lt. Gen. Michael Rocco, deputy Marine Corps commandant for manpower and reserve affairs. armedservices.house.gov

FRIDAY | MAY 17

9:30 a.m. 1800 M Street N.W. Foundation for Defense of Democracies breakfast event, “Muslim Brotherhood Designations: Understanding the Options, Criteria, and Implications.” Speakers: Amy Hawthorne, deputy director of research at the Project on Middle East Democracy; Samuel Tadros, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute; and Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at FDD. Moderated by Nancy Youssef, national security correspondent at The Wall Street Journal. Register at fdd.wufoo.com.

11 a.m. 1030 15th St N.W. Atlantic Council “Commanders Series” conversation on “The Future of the Army in Great-Power Competition” with Army Secretary Mark Esper. Moderated by Vago Muradian, Defense & Aerospace Report. www.atlanticcouncil.org/events

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. Heritage Foundation “fireside chat” with Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, on “Strengthening U.S. Leadership in an Era of Global Competition.” Hosted by the Heritage Foundation’s James Jay Carafano. Live streamed at heritage.org/defense/event.

TUESDAY | MAY 21

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Military Personnel, and Veteran’s Affairs Committee joint hearing on “Military and Veteran Suicide: Understanding the Problem and Preparing for the Future.” Witnesses: Elizabeth Van Winkle, Department of Defense; Navy Capt. Mike Colston, M.D., director, mental health policy and oversight; Keita Franklin, national director of suicide prevention, Department of Veterans Affairs; and Michael Fischer, chief readjustment counseling officer, Department of Veterans Affairs.

THURSDAY | MAY 23

3 p.m. 51 Louisiana Ave N.W. The National Security Institute and the Federalist Society co-host a symposium examining two questions regarding Syria policy: “Does Congress Need to Weigh In?” and “Stay In, Get Out, or Triple Down?” Speakers include: Jennifer Daskal, associate professor of law at American University; retired Maj. Gen. Charles Dunlap, executive director, Center on Law, Ethics and National Security; Jeremy Rabkin, professor of law, George Mason University; Norm Roule, former national intelligence manager for Iran office of the DNI; and Dana Stroul, the Washington Institute. nationalsecurity.gmu.edu