I just received an email from the always interesting and often contrarian Bruce Gyory, a longtime New York Democratic strategist. Since his argument is in fact both interesting and contrarian (and since I tend to agree with it!), I asked whether I could post excerpts. So, with his permission, here’s the core of Gyory’s argument:
Conventional wisdom in both iterations presumes that this as a base election. I am not sure of what happens, but I believe that the outcome will ultimately be determined not by either party’s base, but by how independent voters break and by what margin. This is not a base election, in my view, instead it is a hybrid election where the winning side must both mobilize their base, but also win the lion’s share of the swing vote (10-15% of the total electorate nationally).
The Republican strength from their base vote is obviously higher in the Ruby Red states, which means that Democrats in those states will have to carry Independents by over 15 percent to overcome the Republican edge. But unlike in 2010 and 2014 Democratic turnout will be energized and robust in Red states as well as in the Blue states and in Purple states. In practical terms that means that for McCaskill to hold on in Missouri, Donnelly in Indiana and Tester in Montana, and for Heitkamp to mount a comeback in North Dakota, the terrain is steep but not insurmountable.
The essence of the Independent voter, not the 35-40% of the electorate who self-describes as Independents (but most of whom consistently lean to one party or the other in their voting choice), but the truly Independent voters (a subset totaling 10-15% of national electorate), is that there are things they like and mostly dislike in both parties. Therefore true Independents often shift at the last minute. Thus accurate polling of these true Independents requires polling right up until the end (e.g., the late shifts to Reagan in 1980, away from Bush to Gore in 2000 and the late break among Independents to Trump in 2016). Consequently, polling among in true Independents a week ago and certainly two weeks ago, is not dispositive on where these swing voters will land tomorrow night.
Furthermore, due to demographic trends and the potency of the preexisting conditions issue, plus the demographic growth of Latino voters, I project that the Democrats pick up the US Senate seats in Nevada and Arizona. In Florida, Independents have been breaking towards the Democrats all fall, while Rick Scott could never crack 50% in Florida in good Republican years even when he had a greater cash advantage than he enjoys this year. Thus, I believe Nelson will narrowly win re-election. So if, Donnelly, Tester and McCaskill manage to hold on, but Heitkamp loses, there will be a 50-50 split in the Senate next year, unless Bredesen can win in Tennessee, or Beto O’Rourke lives the seemingly impossible dream by being the Democrat who finally wins in Texas. Of course the margins in the polls are razor thin. I could even see Heitkamp making a late change at the close, powered by her resource advantage and her likability factor in North Dakota, though she has the toughest road to travel of all the Senate’s Democratic incumbents.
Therefore, I am reluctant to anoint Mitch McConnell as the next Majority Leader or to count Chuck Schumer out.
Just as everyone expected Schumer to be the Senate’s Majority Leader at the close of the 2016 campaign, only to see Democratic victories melt into defeats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Indiana, I would be surprised but not shocked to see McConnell meet the same fate this year in Missouri, Indiana and Tennessee–and though I had never believed it possible until last week, in Texas. My reading of the polling data and the likely overall turnout surge, together with so many close races, leave me unable to support the conventional wisdom on the US Senate. Bottom line, I think the outcome for control of the Senate is in doubt and firmly in the fickle hands of Independent voters.
If Bruce is right, we could be up very late Tuesday night–or waiting on recounts after that–before we know who controls of the Senate.
