I had the opportunity to participate in a blogger conference call this morning with a senior administration official who spoke about the president’s upcoming speech at the Coast Guard Academy. The topic of that speech: recent revelations that highlight the importance that Osama bin Laden places on an al Qaeda victory in Iraq and the potential value of Iraq as a base of terrorist operations. It was noted that in 2005 bin Laden directed Abu Musab al Zarqawi to coordinate attacks outside Iraq. According to the president, bin Laden ordered a senior operative–Hamza Rabia–to send Zarqawi a briefing on al Qaeda’s external plans, including plans to attack the United States. Another senior AQ leader–Abu Faraj–reportedly suggested that bin Laden send Rabia to Iraq to help plan operations against U.S. interests. Abu Faraj later speculated that if this effort proved successful, al Qaeda might one day prepare the majority of its external operations from Iraq. Why it seems a surprise to some even after all this is worrisome. Abu Faraj was captured in May 2005. Rabia was killed in Pakistan in December of that year. In June of 2006, Zarqawi was killed in Iraq. These are all important victories that have helped to frustrate al Qaeda plans to stage further attacks against the United States. As the debate over the future of Iraq continues in Washington, it’s important that we consider the importance that al Qaeda places on victory there. It’s clear that bin Laden and others continue to regard it as the central front in the war against the West. In the words of one former Democratic senator, “Iraq has become the primary battleground against the same radical Islamists who declared war on the U.S. in the 1990s and who have carried out a series of terrorist operations including 9/11… a unilateral withdrawal from Iraq would hand Osama bin Laden a substantial psychological victory.” According to the White House, such a victory would be more than psychological. WEEKLY STANDARD contributor Bill Roggio has noted that bin Laden himself has made clear the importance of Iraq in AQ’s plans for the future, saying ‘the epicentre of these wars is Baghdad, the seat of the khalifate rule.’ Zawahiri made the same point in his ‘Dear Zarqawi‘ letter. A clip from the president’s speech is below:
