The U.S.-led international order isn’t crumbling and the BRICS economic bloc will not be taking hold of international politics any time soon.
This bears consideration in light of the hyperbolic excitement that has joined the latest BRICS – or Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – summit in Johannesburg, South Africa. Promising vast new investments, China has firmly cemented its place as BRICS’ de facto leader.
And some see this summit as a key stepping stone towards the BRICS domination of the international political order. Take Sanusha Naidu at Quartz, who argues that “growing uncertainties in global political affairs” and a “belligerent” America mean that the BRICS bloc should be “underwriting the rules of the game” in international order. Naidu says the key to this effort is “upholding the principles of the liberal multilateral trading arrangements which the US seems to be dumping.”
Give me a break.
First off, as shown by President Trump’s trade agreement with European Commission president Jean Claude Juncker on Thursday, the U.S. is only opposed to free trade where that trade is perceived as incompatible with U.S. interests. Where trade is not damaging to U.S. jobs or unfairly weighted towards a competitor, Trump seems perfectly happy to expand it.
Moreover, only a Chinese propagandist or an idiot could think that the BRICS are committed to “liberal multilateral trading arrangements.” In reality, China’s trading arrangements are built on modern mercantilism – currency manipulation, vast state subsides and industrial-scale intellectual property theft. Brazil and India continue to throw vast subsidies at their own economic sectors and remain mired in corruption (although both nations are moving towards the improved rule of law). Also China and India really do not trust each other.
And Russia? Its economy is a basket case, crafted with the the weavings of corruption, cronyism, and waste. Russia’s future rests on the extortion of western Europe and it is now falling behind China and Mexico, and its population has been in decline for decades.
It is these nations we are told will lead the international community? Again, give me a break.
The great advantage of the U.S. liberal order is that it is built on mutual interest rather than closed-shop cronyism. International investors recognize as much, which is why the choose to invest such vast sums in the U.S. economy.
And so while some might presume that China’s “One Belt, One Road” might somehow generate a new era of multilateral cooperation, the truth is that China lacks the political credibility to shape a new international order.
