Math: Why a brokered GOP convention is more likely [VIDEO]

Could the 2016 GOP primary end in a brokered convention? Mathematically, it is more likely now than in any time in recent history.

Red Alert Politics Editor Ron Meyer joined Abby Huntsman on Fox and Friends First (video) to explain the likelihood of a brokered convention and which candidate it would benefit most.

Meyer explained, “There are fewer winner-take-all states than there have been since then (1976). So, the RNC and local state parties went away from winner-take-all states after 2008. Only nine states are truly winner-take-alls — that’s only 17% of the delegates.”

That could spell trouble for Donald Trump’s march to the nomination. Meyer said:

Here’s the issue. If Donald Trump loses some of those, and is only winning 30 to 35 percent in most of these proportional states, he really doesn’t have 50 percent plus 1 (vote) — which is what he needs.

If Rubio can pick off Florida or Kasich can pick off Ohio, some of these big winner-take-all states on March 15, Trump’s path to the nomination is much more complicated and could lead to a brokered convention.


If Donald Trump were to fail to reach 50 percent plus 1, this is what would happen at the convention:

After the first ballot, if no one reaches 50 percent, most of the delegates are then unbound. So, people who are elected to be delegates to this convention can vote for whomever they want. And, many of these local party activists are for Cruz or for Rubio or are people in the establishment who obviously wouldn’t vote for Trump… It’s not going to go well for Trump if this happens.


Who would this benefit?

You have to remember, it’s going to be a consensus candidate, whoever can get to 50 percent, and maybe that someone is outside the current field…

Rubio is in the best shape, because he is the second choice of most people right now. So, he’s polling well and is the top second choice — that plays really well in a convention.

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