President Trump’s path to victory in Wisconsin this November looks rockier after Democrats won a key statewide contest in spring elections on the strength of an improved performance in traditionally Republican suburban strongholds.
Liberal challenger Jill Karofsky captured a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court after defeating Daniel Kelly, the conservative incumbent, 55.27% to 44.73%. The Democratic victory raised alarm bells among Republican insiders in Wisconsin because of how it was achieved. Karofsky received a higher percentage of the vote in reliably Republican suburban counties critical to Trump’s reelection prospects than did Democrats running for president, governor, and state Supreme Court in the most recent statewide contests.
“There may be some issues we need to work through,” Andrew Hitt, the Wisconsin GOP chairman, conceded this week in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “But it’s certainly not insurmountable.”
In 2016, initial skepticism of Trump in the conservative, suburban “WOW counties” near Milwaukee (Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha) melted away when Republican voters concluded that Democrat Hillary Clinton was an unacceptable alternative. These counties are crucial to any statewide victory for Republicans in Wisconsin, and with former Vice President Joe Biden leading the Democratic ticket this year, some GOP strategists fear Trump could be in trouble.
Biden has tacked left to unify the Democratic Party amid a spirited challenge from socialist Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who dropped out of the presidential primary last week after losing big to the former vice president in the Wisconsin primary. But some GOP insiders worry Biden remains acceptable to suburban voters who usually pull the lever for Republicans but are tiring of Trump, whereas Sanders would not have been.
Their concern is fueled in part by the increase in the Democratic vote share in the WOW counties in this month’s state Supreme Court election. On average, Karofsky’s performance there was 8.7 percentage points better than the liberal candidate who lost a bid for a state Supreme Court seat last year, 6 percentage points better than the Democratic nominee for governor in 2018 (Tony Evers, who won a narrow statewide victory), and 5.8 percentage points better than what Clinton garnered against Trump four years ago.
“The suburbs are clearly a challenge,” a Republican operative in Wisconsin said. “The real test is whether the Trump campaign is going to have a suburban plan — or whether the Trump campaign’s suburban plan was running against Bernie Sanders.”
Wisconsin’s 11 Electoral College votes are pivotal to Trump’s overall reelection strategy, and his vulnerability in the suburbs there is similar to the obstacles he faces elsewhere.
The president’s campaign says the results of the state Supreme Court contest are irrelevant and overhyped by the Democrats.
“Daniel Kelly faced two dynamics which were difficult to overcome: the uncertainty of the execution of the primary election produced by Gov. Tony Evers’ unfortunate incompetence and a Democrat primary election with Sen. Bernie Sanders still in the race and on the ballot,” senior spokesman Tim Murtaugh said. “In November against hapless Joe Biden, President Trump will win Wisconsin again, as he did in 2016.”
Republicans are blaming Kelly’s ouster on two main factors, beginning with the chaos surrounding the Wisconsin primary. As the election approached, Democrats, led by Evers, demanded it be delayed because of the health risks of in-person voting posed by the coronavirus pandemic. After the Republican-controlled legislature refused to move the primary, Evers, one day before the primary, unilaterally ordered the contest delayed, only to be overruled by the courts.
Wisconsin Republicans claim this uncertainty amounted to “voter suppression” in exurban and rural counties where Trump enjoys broad support. These counties do not provide the same access to early, in-person voting as do Democratic counties, GOP insiders explained, adding that rural voters might not have been aware that the courts quashed Evers’s 11th-hour suspension of the primary and ordered it to go forward as originally scheduled.
Republicans also say that the lack of a competitive GOP primary (Trump is running for renomination unopposed) versus the existence of the Biden-Sanders primary, naturally motivated a higher Democratic turnout. “Everyone knew the race in 2020 would be held during a Democratic primary, so they would have built-in advantage,” said Mark Jefferson, executive director of the Wisconsin GOP.
Democrats are rejecting Republican reasoning, insisting Karofsky received little in the way of a boost from the turnout generated by the Biden-Sanders primary because it has been clear to Democratic voters for weeks prior that the former vice president was going to win the nomination.
Democratic insiders also argue the real voter suppression occurred in liberal bastions such as Milwaukee, where because of the coronavirus, just five polling places were open for in-person voting on primary day, compared to the normal 180. And, they point to robust Democratic voting performance in battleground counties across Wisconsin beyond the suburban WOW counties as evidence of encouraging trends for Biden.
“If I was the Trump campaign, I’d be pretty panicked this morning,” said David Bergstein, Democratic National Committee spokesman. “Suburban voters who normally formed the bedrock of the Republican coalition are fleeing the Republican Party.”
