COLUMBUS, OHIO — Donald Trump is the clear leader in the delegate chase, but he is lagging behind the pace he needs if he wants to avoid a contested convention.
Trump needs a majority (1237) of the 2473 delegates. Coming into tonight, he had won 468 of the 962 delegates awarded — or 44.5 percen. In order to win outright, he’ll need to ramp that pace up in the forthcoming primaries. Specifically, he’ll need 53.5 percent of remaining delegates.
But any delegate math needs to take into account the two huge winner-take-all states next week. If Trump wins both, he’ll be in very good shape. If you grant Trump Florida’s 99 delegates, then Trump needs a bare-majority of all remaining delegates — including tonight’s.
As it stands at 10 p.m., Trump is poised to win about 26 of Michigan’s 59 delegates, and somwhere between 22 and 28 of Mississippi’s 40 delegates. The middle of that is just above 50 percent — exactly where he needs to be, if he wins Florida.
This doesn’t count the results in Idaho and Hawaii.
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
