British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal agreement with the European Union suffered its third successive defeat in Parliament on Friday. That means Britain could still be heading for a no-deal exit from the EU on April 12, a soft Brexit, or no Brexit at all.
The one certain thing is that May’s deal is toast. The math just doesn’t add up in her favor.
So what happens next? If Parliament votes next week for an alternate approach to Brexit that could earn the EU’s favor, May might throw her support behind that approach. The BBC’s Europe editor suggests that the EU might then accept that altered Brexit form and, if Parliament passed a vote to give it effect, agree to Britain’s withdrawal on May 22.
Still, although a customs union-based deal seems the most likely of any to get parliamentary support, it would greatly aggravate the most devout pro-Brexit voters and parliamentarians. They believe continued membership in EU’s customs union would prevent the British government from negotiating external trade deals to open up and liberalize the British economy.
A second alternative is that Parliament continues to disagree over what an alternative Brexit arrangement might look like. In that scenario, the U.K. will leave the EU on April 12 under a “no deal” situation. The most ardent Brexiters support this no-deal prospect, but the economic risks it poses are significant. Britain’s economic crown jewels are its financial and professional services sector. And firms in that sector have suggested they would dramatically decrease activity and investment in such a scenario. The British military is also preparing for social unrest in the event of food and goods shortages under a no-deal outcome.
Finally, May might call a new election or assent to parliamentary support for a new referendum. Alternatively, May might ask the EU for a long extension to Brexit’s effect date, though EU elections are scheduled for this summer. Of course, these possibilities threaten Brexit’s democratic mandate, as given by more than 17 million votes in 2016.
Ultimately, this is a moment of great consequence and political opportunity. It is very difficult to predict what will follow.
