Despite some schedule adjustments, the NFL is going full-steam ahead into Week 5. Who knows if all the games happen as scheduled, but either way, here are three games you can’t miss and my picks to win.
Last week, my picks went 2-1 — pretty good, and in my defense, did you predict the Cleveland Browns would crush the Dallas Cowboys by 11 points? Didn’t think so. So far this season, I’m 9-2 straight-up and against the spread.
Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (0-4), 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX
The Falcons looked dreadful in a Monday night loss to the Packers during a season in which they’ve looked, well, dreadful.
But actually, Atlanta’s offense is quite good. Going into last week, the Falcons had the sixth-best scoring offense in football and were averaging 30 points per game. The problem is, unsurprisingly, that Atlanta’s defense is quite bad. The Falcons have the second-worst scoring defense in football and are giving up 34.5 points per game. They have the fifth-best passing offense in the NFL but also happen to have the second-worst pass defense. The Falcons give up a mind-numbing 341.5 passing yards per game.
They got demolished by two great teams in Seattle and Green Bay but lost two you-HAD-it-and-you-BLEW-it games to Dallas and Chicago. This team is lost right now and has been ever since they blew that 28-3 lead to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They’re beat up, they’re injured, and they’re demoralized. They’re a punchline this season and have been since they lost that Super Bowl.
This team, already riddled with injuries, just lost their starting free safety for the season and might not have Julio Jones at anything resembling full strength the rest of the season. They’re playing for pride at this point. Todd Gurley has become more involved in the offense, and they’ll need more of him to keep defenses honest while running the ball as well as opening up play-action down the field.
Even though the Panthers won’t have Christian McCaffrey available, they’re definitely the healthier team. Teddy Bridgewater has shown command of the offense, and the defense has improved under defensive coordinator Phil Snow. Carolina is also coming in with some momentum after wins against the Chargers and Cardinals.
Offensively, the Panthers are airing it out. Mike Davis is averaging only 32.8 yards per game on the ground. Bridgewater has done a nice job of picking up yards with his legs. He’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry on the season. Robby Anderson is the top receiver on the team with DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel behind him. Interestingly, Davis actually has more targets, more catches, and nearly as many receiving yards as Samuel.
One stat I’ll be keeping my eye on is third-down conversions. The Panthers are one of the best in the NFL at moving the chains on third down. They’re currently converting at a 48.9% clip.
I expect to see a back-and-forth game on Sunday. The Falcons need this win more than the Panthers do, but they’re going to have to earn every bit of it.
The line: Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
The pick: The fate of Falcons head coach Dan Quinn likely rests on whether or not the Falcons win this game. That’s why I’ll take Atlanta to win and cover the 1.5-point spread.
Indianapolis Colts (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (3-1), 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
It has been a very long time since the Browns were this good in terms of talent, but also in terms of record. After a horrible season-opening loss to Baltimore, they scored 35 in a win against the Bengals, scored 34 in a win against Washington, and then scored 49 last week in their win against Dallas.
Losing Nick Chubb for a significant amount of time hurts, but they can still do plenty of damage with Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson. Odell Beckham Jr. has proven he can still make big plays. Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper are excellent complementary options, and the Browns might have David Njoku available this week as well. Those two-tight end sets could give the Colts some issues.
Defensively, it isn’t pretty for the Browns, but it doesn’t necessarily need to be when you’re scoring that many points.
When you look at the Colts, it’s pretty much the opposite. The defense has been sensational, and the offense has often been hard to watch.
After losing to the Jaguars in their opener, the Colts surrendered just 11 points to the Vikings, 7 to the Jets, and 11 to the Bears. They have the league’s best scoring defense, the best passing defense, and the fourth-best run defense.
Jonathan Taylor has stepped up as the feature back after Marlon Mack went down for the year, but he hasn’t been as explosive as the Colts might have hoped for. He’s averaging less than four yards per carry, but has caught all 10 passes thrown his way and is averaging nine yards per catch.
The Colts have been deploying a multitude of tight ends in the offense. Mo-Alie Cox is actually leading the team in receiving yards ahead of T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal. Nobody is averaging more than 50 receiving yards per game. Philip Rivers is simply being asked to manage the game right now.
Because the Colts have been so good on defense, their offense hasn’t had to do too much. That will likely need to change on Sunday because the Browns are unlikely to lay an egg offensively. They’re simply too balanced and talented to get completely shut down.
I believe the Colts will be able to get stops, but will they be able to rally if the offense sputters and they fall behind early?
The line: Indianapolis Colts (-1.0)
The pick: The Colts defense is outstanding, but I think the array of options on offense will make the Browns tough to beat. I’m taking the points and Cleveland to win as home underdogs.
Buffalo Bills (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (3-0), 7:00 p.m. ET Tuesday on CBS
Over the past couple of weeks, the Titans have had at least 23 positive COVID-19 tests. It forced the postponement of their Week 4 game against the Steelers and has also pushed their game against the Bills to Tuesday.
Their facility had been closed since September 29. On Wednesday, when the game was moved to Tuesday, they were told that they had to register no new positive tests for the next three days in order to get into their facility by Sunday at the earliest.
The Bills, who have won all four of their games by 10 points or less, are brimming with confidence. It would be hard to say that they’re not better prepared since they have been able to play out scenarios and schemes in practice while the Titans have been working from home.
The uncertainty and waiting can’t be good for the Titans. While they might be well-rested after going without contact in practice and games, it’ll take a bit of time for them to get back to game speed. If all goes well and they’re allowed to re-enter the building, they’ll have two days to make adjustments before gameday.
The Bills have the league’s fifth-best scoring offense and second-best passing offense. Josh Allen definitely seems to have taken the next step in his development, and Stefon Diggs has thrived in his role as Buffalo’s top receiver. Diggs is averaging over 100 receiving yards a game and has a pair of touchdown passes in his first four games with the team. Allen is completing nearly 71% of his passes and has thrown 12 touchdowns with just one interception. He’s currently on pace to throw for over 5,300 yards with 48 touchdowns!
Stephen Gostkowski’s heroics have the Titans at 3-0. He kicked the game-winner in the opener and then drilled go-ahead field goals in their next two games. He’s a perfect 4-for-4 so far this season on field goals of at least 50 yards.
Ryan Tannehill has rewarded the confidence that the front office showed in him this offseason. He’s having a good season, not an incredible one, but he’s making good decisions with the football and putting the team in position to win games. He’s completing over 67% of his passes and has thrown for six touchdowns with just one pick.
Derrick Henry has gotten 82 carries in just three games but hasn’t been able to showcase the incredible form from last season’s playoffs where he nearly single-handedly carried the Titans to the Super Bowl. He’s averaging less than four yards per carry. While he does have two rushing touchdowns on the season, he doesn’t have a single run of 20 yards or more. His longest run of the year so far has been 16 yards. He’s still averaging over 100 yards per game on the ground, but that’s coming from volume.
I expect to see Henry get a lot of touches on Tuesday night. The Titans certainly prefer to establish the run to set up the pass, but they have been very balanced through their first three games. In their first three games, Tannehill has thrown 104 times while the team has 102 rushing attempts. It’s pretty wild that it is that close.
Converting on third down and in the red zone will be huge. The Bills move the chains on over 51% of third-down plays while the Titans score touchdowns on nearly 73% of their trips to the red zone. While neither the Bills nor the Titans are great at third-down defense, Tennessee has been particularly brutal when it comes to red-zone defense. When opponents get into the red zone against the Titans, they score touchdowns 80% of the time. That’s currently the second-worst mark in the league and could be the difference in this game.
The line: As of press time, this game had no betting line, presumably because of the COVID-19 uncertainty.
The pick: There’s a lot to like about the Titans, but I find it hard to believe that being sidelined for such a long amount of time won’t negatively affect them. I’m taking the Bills to win.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington.
