Ted Cruz versus Donald Trump in Iowa would have clearly drawn battle lines.
Cruz would argue that he was the only true conservative in the race; Trump would counter that only a non-politician can be trusted to go to Washington and shake things up. The Texas senator might add that Trump has a history of supporting liberal positions and causes; the New York real estate mogul and reality television start might counter that only he has vowed to round up and deport all 11-12 million illegal immigrants.
But in the fluid campaign to woo Republican voters ahead of the Feb. 1 caucuses, the drama lies in determining what would have to happen for the Iowa battle to boil down to these two top presidential contenders. In the two most recent public surveys of likely Iowa caucus goers, Trump led the field, followed by Cruz. In the most recent available poll, conducted by Quinnipiac last month, Trump led Cruz by just 2 points.
Ben Carson, who until recently appeared to be in command in the Hawkeye State, could hold the key. The retired pediatric neurosurgeon is still among the most-liked candidates in the GOP nominating contest, and has been particularly strong among evangelical Christians, a crucial voting bloc. Whether they stick with him, or bolt to other candidates could impact the contest from top to bottom.
“I think the issue in Iowa is: What does Carson get?” Republican strategist Brad Todd told the Washington Examiner on Wednesday. “There’s a lot of game theory going on with Iowa caucus goers; they’re educated.”
Todd ran Believe Again, the super PAC supporting Bobby Jindal’s presidential campaign. He was heavily involved in the Iowa campaign until just a few weeks ago, when the Louisiana governor exited the race. Todd said the outcome could be uncertain right up until Caucus Day, as voters try and figure out which candidates they like the most, and among them, who has a chance to win Iowa and go the furthest in the states that follow.
In the RealClearPolitics.com average of Iowa GOP polls, Trump leads Carson 26.7 percent to 20 percent, followed closely by Cruz at 18.3 percent. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida rounds out the top four — and top tier — with 12.3 percent. Quinnipiac’s Iowa survey, conducted Nov. 16-22, revealed where the candidates’ support was coming from. Trump, as it turns out, led among Republicans who describe themselves as “liberal” and “somewhat conservative.”
That data contradicts the conventional wisdom that Trump is the preferred candidate of only the far right of the Republican Party. He did pull solid support from voters who identify with the Tea Party, as Christian evangelicals or describe themselves as “very conservative.” But those three categories belonged to Cruz, in some cases by wide margins. Overall, Trump led Cruz 25 percent to 23 percent in this poll; Carson garnered 18 percent, Rubio 13 percent.
“I think Cruz wins Iowa. His brand of conservative matches well with Iowa conservatives,” said an Iowa GOP insider who is caucusing for another candidate and requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “Trump’s support will begin to erode two to three weeks before the caucuses as participants start to truly hone in on the candidates and their positions, compared to their own.”
This tracks closely with the Cruz campaign’s view of how Iowa will shake out. Among the reasons why the Texan has never been in a hurry to launch an offensive against Trump — he doesn’t really think he’ll have to. Cruz’s Iowa supporters aren’t dismissive of Trump, if for no other reason than his top campaign official in state is Chuck Laudner, the veteran caucus organization wiz who engineered Rick Santorum’s upset victory in 2012.
But Iowa Cruz’ers are confident that their organization is better, and comprised of more reliable caucus participants than Trump’s. Laudner who did not respond to an email request to discuss this story, has said that Trump’s Iowa bid relies in part on attracting new voters to the caucus. Unlike a normal primary where voters punch a ticket and exit the ballot box, caucusing can be complicated and requires participants to invest an entire evening in the process.
Committed political activists usually dominate caucuses.
Cruz’s biggest Iowa backers believe his coalition of evangelicals, libertarian sympathizers, Tea Partiers, and other factions important to the conservative community, is unparalleled and puts him on pace to win on Feb. 1. “If it gets down to two people, Cruz has already won,” said Steve Deace, the influential Iowa talk radio host who endorsed the Texan and is advising his campaign.
