Blasphemy! A nimble and clever argument is now advanced by Monsieur Kristol, an obvious troublemaker. In the good old days you could just throw a heretic into a cell, or better yet boiling oil, but in this godless modern age I am forced to respond with mere words. Damn you Robespierre! Either you believe that the primaries are connected and that each contest mightily influences the next, or you don’t. If you believe they are separate, you can build a strategy of fortresses and redoubts. That has been tried before. John Connally in South Carolina in 1980 and Al Gore’s southern strategy in 1988 both come to mind. If you believe the opposite, that each wave of primaries influences the next, you fear a strategy based on weathering early losses. Clearly, I believe the latter, and I think the compacted primary schedule this year makes the connection effect more powerful, not less. My argument for McCain investing scarce television money to make a serious impact in Iowa is based on several assumptions: ONE. He needs a bold strategy to win that leverages his limited resources. TWO. He will make no impact in Iowa without paid TV. Organization is important in Iowa, but all elections, including the Iowa caucus, are driven in the end by message. THREE. Between 100,000 and 112,000 people are likely to participate in the Iowa GOP caucus. An average of the last five Iowa polls shows the race for third place between Giuliani, Thompson, and McCain has a spread of 7 points to 8 points, with McCain trailing. If McCain can close that – a matter of roughly 9.000 voters – he can win third place. While not easy, that is certainly striking distance, and seems to be a stronger bet than waiting for the tidal wave to hit New Hampshire (assuming New Hampshire, when the date of the election is finally set, follows Iowa). FOUR. McCain has what he needs now to upset New Hampshire. He is known and loved there. But he is stuck in second place because his campaign seems to many to be a flat re-run. I’m dubious there is much his campaign can do with more ads and more town-hall visits alone to break through in New Hampshire. I think the one place those tools could make an impact is Iowa, where McCain has less support and less history. To win New Hampshire, McCain needs something very big to happen in the larger narrative of the race. Beating Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani for third place in Iowa would be a big jolt with big media attention that would give New Hampshire a reason to fall back in love with their favorite. McCain also needs to damage Rudy in Iowa to win, or Rudy will get a surge in New Hampshire that will come partially at McCain’s expense. It boils down to a very difficult choice between a tough to pull off offense in Iowa, or a tough to pull off defense in New Hampshire. I’d rather take the offensive. It would be difficult, but there is no easy way for McCain to win. Whatever his high command decides, they need to commit to it. Either get really into Iowa, or pull out. A half-hearted Iowa campaign without TV support is the worst choice of all. Meanwhile on the Democratic side, a new poll shows Obama leading in Iowa, as predicted here.
