Republicans running in a crucial special House election in Georgia are scrambling for second place and a spot in an expected runoff just days before the vote.
Democrat Jon Ossoff is expected to win round one in the Republican-leaning, suburban Atlanta 6th district, previously held by Health and Human Service Secretary Tom Price, in part because of the nasty GOP infighting.
The crowded GOP field was warring with each other ahead of Tuesday’s jungle primary.
Through television ads, mailers and robocalls, Republicans were arguing over who was more conservative, who was more loyal to President Trump, and who would be the strongest candidate in the runoff.
The odds of Ossoff surpassing 50 percent, and winning the special election outright, appeared low.
But, he raised an astounding $8.3 million in the first three months of the year, and his prospects are good enough that Republican operatives are nervous, and disinclined to trust polling that shows Ossoff coming up short.
“I don’t understand this emerging conventional wisdom that Ossoff can’t get to 50 on April 18. Based on the data, he has a very, very real path,” a Republican insider said, on condition of anonymity in order to speak candidly. “A lot of these polls showing him in the low 40s have models that aren’t tracking all the low propensity voters we’re seeing.”
Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Georgia’s affluent 6th district by just 1.5 percentage points, contributing to uncertainty about Tuesday’s vote.
But given its history, Republicans see a safe seat that they might hold for years, motivating more than 10 to run in the special election. A Republican has held the district since 1979, when New Gingrich, who rose to become House speaker, assumed office.
Top contenders include Bob Gray, a businessman and city councilman; Karen Handel, the former Georgia secretary of state and a 2014 Senate candidate; Judson Hill, a state senator; and Dan Moody, a businessman and former state legislator.
They’ve been taking shots at each other, along with the help from their supporters.
The Club for a Growth, a prominent, Washington-based conservative activist group, endorsed Gray, and has run television ads attacking Handel as a “big spending, career politician.” The club has spent more than $600,000 on Gray’s behalf.
In a robocall to voters in the district, Gray said he was the only Republican in the race to stand by Trump in 2016. That claim has been disputed by some Republicans, pointing to underdogs Amy Kremer, a Tea Party activist; and Bruce LeVell, the former Gwinnett County GOP chairman, as more committed Trump supporters.
Moody has the backing of Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga. Perdue, who never held office before being elected in 2014, has cut a television ad for Moody and campaigned with him in Atlanta. Perdue’s political operation was assisting Moody with voter turnout in the campaign’s final days.
“Dan Moody cares more about getting results than getting credit,” Perdue said, in the straight-to-camera television spot. “Dan’s one of us.”
Handel has led among Republicans in most polls. She also has outside support. Ending Spending, a conservative group, reported investing more than $1 million on her behalf, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
Republicans backing her candidacy say the attacks she has absorbed are proof that she is the Republican to beat in the race.
“If any of the other guys were confident in getting through they wouldn’t be closing positive, building their own numbers,” a Handel supporter said.
The Republican machine is spending heavily to keep Ossoff below the magic, 50 percent threshold.
The bulk of the money is coming from the National Republican Congressional Committee and Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC affiliated with House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis.
Democrats are equally invested.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee helped the Ossoff campaign build a paid field staff of more than 70 to knock on doors. The party has appointed precinct captains in all 210 voting precincts in the district to boost turnout.
High profile progressive groups also are all in for Ossoff.
