President Trump’s slow motorcade ride Sunday evening around Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where he is a COVID-19 patient, had “deterrence value” to adversaries like Russia, China, and North Korea, according to the National Interest security expert Harry Kazianis.
“My initial impression was probably a little bit of a shock,” Kazianis told the Washington Examiner Monday, adding that news Trump’s White House medical team approved the ride comforted him.
But Kazianis said the incident continues a pattern of keeping adversaries off balance.
“Does it put a little doubt in their head? Does it maybe have a little bit of deterrence value? Sure. I think so,” he said.
Kazianis said the highly unusual incident was consistent with Trump’s tendency to make quick, gut decisions that maximize media attention.
“The president does have an impulsive streak,” he said.
“If you’re in Russia or North Korea or China, you probably look at this and say, ‘There is a tendency for President Trump to think media focus first, grand strategy second,” he said. “I think a lot of the times his instincts are really sound, but I think sometimes the choices that he makes could be refocused a little bit differently.”
Kazianis suggested that the president may have been able to wave from a balcony or find a similar opportunity to reach his supporters.
“I think this is one of those things where his advisers need to get right in his face and say, ‘Mr. President, I think your ideas are good, but we need to refocus it and think about it this way,'” he said.
Still, for as rash as Trump’s decisions might be, Kazianis said they do not compare to the madman theory espoused by the Nixon White House.
President Richard Nixon intended to project to the Soviet Union the idea that he was an irrational and unpredictable president that should not be provoked on defense decisions lest he push the nuclear button.
Kazianis cautioned not to read too deeply into Trump’s rhetoric, like calling for “fire and fury” against North Korea before meeting with Kim Jong Un.
“We have to separate some of these media savvy moments or some of these tweets from the actual policy,” he said, praising the effectiveness of his style on foreign policy goals with adversaries.
“It has worked in terms of restraining the Russians a little bit in terms of election interference in this cycle. I think he stopped the North Koreans from testing ICBMs and nuclear weapons. I think he has in a lot of respects pushed back the Chinese from maybe trying to really fully dominate the South China Sea where they could,” he said. “But I think time will tell.”
