In an ironic twist, Republican candidates are leading in at least three of the four states where voters are also expected to approve ballot initiatives that will raise their states’ minimum wage.
In Alaska, Arkansas, Nebraska and South Dakota, the most recent polls show non-incumbent Republicans leading in the races for Senate and gubernatorial seats. The same polls in Alaska, Arkansas and South Dakota show voters also approving measures to raise the state’s minimum legal pay rate to between $8.50 and $9.75 an hour, well above the current federal level of $7.25.
In Alaska and Arkansas Republicans are only lukewarmly in favor of it, and the South Dakota and Nebraska GOP candidates oppose raising it. Democrats strongly favor an increase in every state.
Minimum wage referendums were initially expected to benefit Democrats and hurt Republicans since polls generally show strong support for higher minimum wages. Many liberal groups, especially organized labor, backed campaigns to raise the minimum wage even higher to $15 an hour and succeeded in getting cities like San Francisco and Seattle to adopt it.
Senate Democrats pushed a bill in April that would have raised the national minimum wage to $10.10 an hour, but the effort died when Republicans balked, pointing to a Congressional Budget Office report that said the bill would destroy a half-million jobs.
“The fact is there is a bill that was voted on today in the Senate that, with the exception of one Republican senator, was voted against by the entire Republican conference in the Senate but was supported Democrats, all of them,” said Jay Carney, then the White House press secretary. “And that majority in the United States Senate reflects the majority opinion in the United States of America.”
But in the four states that are giving voters an opportunity to raise the wage, it hasn’t boosted the Democratic candidates to leads. Michael Saltsman, research director at the Employment Policies Institute, which opposes a higher minimum wage on economic grounds, argued that in many cases the Republicans found a way to separate the state increase from any national one.
“For instance in Arkansas, Republicans have taken a nuanced position where they support the local ballot initiative but oppose the national $10.10 minimum that the president wants to do,” Saltsman said. “That effectively neutralized it as a campaign issue.”
Indeed, Republican Senate candidate Tom Cotton told a local conservative talk radio show in September that he would vote for the $8.50 raise but that going any higher would be dangerous. “As Arkansas’ next U.S. senator, I’m going to make sure we have a healthy economy. Not the kind of minimum wage economy that Mark Pryor and Barack Obama have created.”
An Arkansas University poll released last week showed likely voters approving, 70-22 percent, a measure to increase the minimum wage to $8.50 an hour. The state minimum wage is currently $6.50 an hour, well below even the federal level.
The same poll showed Cotton beating incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor, 43-36 percent, and Republican gubernatorial candidate Asa Hutchinson beating Democrat Mike Ross, 45-38 percent. The results were based on a phone poll of 747 people and had a margin of error of +/- 3.6 points.
In the Alaskan Senate race, a Monday survey by the Democrat-leaning firm of Public Policy Polling gave Republican Senate candidate Dan Sullivan a marginal 46-45 percent lead over Democratic incumbent Mark Begich, but also showed a ballot measure to raise the state’s minimum wage by $2 to $9.75 an hour winning by a margin of 62-35 percent. The poll was based on a survey of 1,052 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3 points.
Sullivan took a similar position to Tom Cotton, telling the Wall Street Journal in September that he backs the state increase, but not the national one. “Now, because it is a state-driven initiative, I do support the motion to place a minimum wage question directly to the people of Alaska,” he said. Critics accused him of flip-flopping on the issue, noting he had voiced opposition earlier in the campaign.
“Republicans have read the polls and fallen in line,” said Ed Flanagan, chairman of Alaskans for a Fair Minimum Wage.
South Dakota Republican candidate Mike Rounds continues to lead a three-way race for that state’s open Senate seat, beating Democrat Rick Weiland and Republican-turned-Independent Larry Pressler, 43-32-19 percent, respectively. That’s according to a SurveyUSA poll last week of 611 likely voters with a 4-point margin of error. The same poll found a measure to increase the minimum wage to $8.50 an hour winning 60-28 percent. In that case, Rounds has opposed any increase in the minimum wage.
In Nebraska, Republican Senate candidate Ben Sasse is handily beating David Domina, 59-30 percent, according to a New York Times poll released last week. Voters also will decide a ballot initiative that would raise the state minimum wage to $9 an hour. Polling data for that was not available. Nebraska is not considered competitive and thus little polling has been done, but Saltsman said his group’s internal polls show it ahead. Sasse has avoided the issue, though he has said he opposes it.
