At this point, it’s very hard to say much about what the presidential primaries will look like. We’re not even sure when many of them will be held, as several state legislatures consider delaying their primaries to meet new party rules, or else even dropping them altogether in favor of state conventions.
But if Super Tuesday disintegrates from a 24-state primary day to a nine-state primary day, it could prolong the process. At the Daily Beast, McKay Coppins does some speculating:
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It boils down to simple addition. In order to clinch the nomination, a candidate needs to secure more than half of the party’s delegates. In primaries past, a presidential hopeful who dominated Super Tuesday could come close enough to that 51 percent mark that he would be considered the presumptive nominee. (Think of John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008.) But this time around, the number of delegates available early on will significantly shrink, making it impossible for someone like Mitt Romney to take out his primary rivals in one fell swoop….
That spells trouble for Romney, who currently is leading most national polls but stands to lose steam the longer the race is drawn out. At the same time, it could create an opportunity for late entries like Sarah Palin or Texas Gov. Rick Perry…
It’s an interesting thought. On the other hand, candidates who wait to compete in later primaries — think of Rudy Giuliani’s Florida strategy — just don’t have such a great track record.
