France has been fairly politically stable for 60 years, but judging from polls for the May 8 French presidential election, it may very well be diving back into the troubled waters of an institutional crisis.
The odds are basically three out of four that the next president of France, by tearing down the work of the General de Gaulle — who in 1958 put an end to 250 years of monarchies, empires, revolutions and adolescent republics — will be holding France hostage of a regime crisis.
On May 8, if Marine le Pen, from the far-right, Jean-Luc Melenchon from the extreme-left and, yes, even Emmanuel Macron, popular newcomer of an “unclear center” after being President Francois Hollande’s socialist economy minister, are elected, they will lack a fundamental tool that De Gaulle required to rule the nation: a majority in the Assemblee Nationale, the lower chamber.
During his hyperactive term, former President Nicolas Sarkozy misled the French people and the world into believing that the French president governs. But while he is indeed the guardian of the institutions, the commander-in-chief, the voice of the country, and the representative of the most prolific cheese variety on earth, he certainly does not govern: The Constitution clearly states that the prime minister conducts the policy of the nation.
De Gaulle’s initial idea of the French Fifth Republic was, in fact, a “semi-presidential” one. In France, like in many other democracies, the president appoints the prime minister. But the prime minister, who then appoints his government, has to be approved by a majority of 289 votes out of the 577 French representatives at the Assemblee Nationale.
However, a French president has a seven-year term while a delegate in the assembly has a five-year one. This disassociation of the two major elections was leading to counter-productive cohabitation periods that former right-wing President Jacques Chirac, coping with left-wing Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, experienced and despised.
In 2000, he launched, by referendum, a Constitutional reform to align the presidential and the parliamentary elections, leaving only a short six-week gap between the two. He wanted to give a clear majority to the freshly-elected president, leading France to invariably become more and more a bi-partisan country. But what he didn’t expect was that French people would finally reject the bi-partisan confrontation, as they grew tired of being chaperoned by leaders they less and less believed in.
It is therefore not a surprise that the last polls put “outsider” candidates in the best position to qualify for the second round. And there is absolutely no way that any of them would have a majority in parliament.
Emmanuel Macron, who created his party “En Marche!” (literally, “Let’s walk”) less than a year ago, gathered partisans within the ranks of the old Left and Right, mostly falling stars desperately trying to be in the spotlight again. But he can count on less than 50 actual delegates. Among them, a large majority of socialists, a few centrists, and only one right-wing member.
If Macron’s victory would surely ensure him some last-hour allies from both sides, his candidates are absolutely unknown, even to him. Would these newcomers win against outgoing congressmen that have been shaking hands for 40 years in the same spot? Probably some, but 200 of them…? Remember, 289 delegates have to vote in favor of the prime minister.
Marine le Pen and the Front National’s allied parties enjoy today a total of three members in the lower chamber. The most optimistic predictions would allow her a total of 60 delegates, and that would be a huge victory.
Far leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon, fourth in the polls but who has a good dynamic, faces the same dead-end. If some socialists would form a coalition with him, they will never end up with more than 80 votes.
Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Francois Fillon, who would be in a stronger position to form a coalition if elected, is still suffering under the cloud of an investigation for allegedly using public funds to employ his wife.
So whether they promise Frexit, the end of nuclear power, or simply negotiating with French unions for a decrease in public pensions — which is probably harder than winning the Tour de France — how would the leading candidates manage to govern without a majority that would vote their reforms?
No need to be a Fields Medal winner to understand what lies behind Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron or Jean-Luc Melenchon’s promises. A lie or at least the most unbelievable part of their program: a parliamentary majority. While throughout the French political history lying has never prevented political figures from being elected, none ever lied about their ability to govern.
Europe just experienced a first breach in its history; Brexit showed the other 26 members and the entire world that the European Union is not invincible. France has always been, along with Germany, the driver of Europe’s growth and development. Taking the risk to lead France in an institutional crisis for the next five years is not only dangerous for our country, it means jeopardizing Europe’s future and its 500 million citizens.
Jean de Nicolay is a consultant in lobbying and public affairs. He was a member of several French ministers’ cabinets until 2012. After being involved in Nicolas Sarkozy’s 2007 campaign, he joined Francois Fillon’s government as a communication and parliamentary advisor.
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