Although GOP front-runner Donald Trump recently won the Republican primary in New Hampshire and remains a popular choice for conservative voters in the upcoming caucuses and elections, some news outlets and national polls are reporting a steady decline of his numbers.
This may be due, in part, to the increasing popularity of other candidates like Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. However, some suggest that this conclusion is the result of erroneous polling, and that there are many more Trump followers than are willing to admit their support.
In a study conducted by Morning Consult at the end of 2015, researchers found that, “Donald Trump receives about five percentage points more support among registered Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents online compared with live telephone interviews.”
Furthermore, the researchers found that amongst college graduates in particular, the difference in responses was even greater — voters admitted their support a full ten percentage points more often online than in live phone calls. Responders with more education were more likely to deny their support of Trump to a live person, according to the study.
The deviation across the two platforms for the other Republican candidates was negligible across all demographics.
This study demonstrates Trump supporters’ hesitancy to announce their patronage. Young Republicans are especially holding back, struggling to justify their conservative views to their widely liberal peers.
“[Trump’s supporters] think that their classmates will see them as ‘racist’ if they support him, just because he wants to make a stronger border control and stop illegal immigrants, and because he’s trying to reduce the threat of terror in America,” said high school senior and outspoken Trump advocate Ryan Rawlings. “They won’t say they support him because they’ll be judged for it.”
Wyatt Dillon, a junior at Shenandoah University, agreed that most of his peers are liberal, and “it’s not very socially acceptable amongst college students to be a supporter of someone they feel is radical.”
Dillon went on to claim that, “freedom of speech has been impeded by the threat of being socially isolated by their peers, because they don’t share opinions.” Additionally, “it’s not trendy, it’s not edgy to support Donald Trump,” he said.
At the risk of being shunned from campus social life, some millennials may simply be hiding their support for the candidate.
In contrast, potential Democratic nominees Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton have widespread youth followings, a key advantage to that could prove detrimental to the GOP if Trump earns the nomination.
