Just a year after Republicans lost Virginia to President Joe Biden by more than 10 points, they swept the state for all three statewide constitutional offices — governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. Their success must be credited to the candidates’ strong messaging and tailored focus on cultural issues, as well as voter frustration with a bungling Biden administration.
But there is another factor that can’t be ignored: former President Donald Trump, or the absence thereof.
Democrats tried as hard as they could to tie the Virginia election to Trump. But he played barely any role in it at all. His name wasn’t on the ballot, his platform was not the one in question, and the GOP candidates he endorsed could not have been less like him on a personal level.
Glenn Youngkin, specifically, who won the state’s gubernatorial election on Tuesday, proved the Trump agenda works a lot better — at least in Virginia — without Trump. Youngkin ran on culture war issues, such as leftist extremism in education — an issue Democrats had been on the offensive, and only Trump seemed willing to meet them in battle. But Youngkin did it calmly and reasonably, without sucking all the air out of the room. The result was that tens of thousands of suburban Virginia voters who went blue for Biden in 2020 voted red this time around. Suburban mothers, in particular, turned out in droves for Youngkin on Tuesday after rejecting Trump handily last year.
Youngkin managed to bring new voters in without driving base voters away. Voter turnout in rural parts of the state remained high — Youngkin carried many rural counties with more than 80% of the vote — even though Trump claimed they wouldn’t show up if Republicans didn’t make the election about how he had really won in 2020.
Trump might be surprised to learn his base has concerns outside of what he tells them to be concerned about. And that’s why Youngkin won them over — he campaigned for them, not for himself.
Virginia should be the model for Republicans as they move on from Trump in 2022 and 2024. Candidates should lean into cultural issues and figure out what mobilizes parents and families. Most importantly, they must reject the temptation to make their campaigns all about one personality and one man. If they can do that, Republicans will be able not only to take back power but to hold on to it.
