Why the no-fly zone can’t stop Libyan fighting

A few things have become clear in the first days of U.S. attacks on Libya. First, a no-fly zone will not stop Moammar Gadhafi from attacking opposition forces and civilians because Gadhafi had very little air power to begin with. The no-fly zone hasn’t taken much away from him. Second, Gadhafi is still using his ground forces to attack, and therefore if the U.S.-led coalition is to achieve the United Nations’ goal of protecting civilians, then coalition planes have to attack Gadhafi’s ground forces. Third, destroying Gadhafi’s ground forces means stepping up missions targeting troops and armor near population centers, which, even with today’s precision munitions, can be a difficult business. So the coalition attacks against Gadhafi’s ground forces have to be very carefully calibrated not to inflict civilian casualties. Fourth, escalating attacks from the air risks alienating some members of the coalition — has that plane from Qatar arrived yet? — especially if civilian casualties occur. Fifth, all of the above makes Libya a much more difficult mission than some no-fly zone enthusiasts suggested before the war began.

All that was apparent Wednesday in a briefing by Rear Adm. Gerard Hueber, chief of staff of Joint Task Force Odyssey Dawn, who spoke to reporters by phone from the USS Mount Whitney. “The no-fly zone is established over Libya, and we have no indications of air traffic in the last days,” Hueber said.  Yet at the same time, he added: “There is no indication that Gadhafi’s forces are pulling back from Misurata or Ajdabiya. The opposition in both of those cities is under attack…and in Misurata and Ajdabiya, Gadhafi’s forces are targeting population centers specifically.”

When asked about protecting civilians in cities, Hueber said, “It’s an extremely complex and difficult environment.”  Since using coalition ground forces against Gadhafi is “not an option,” Hueber explained, coalition pilots are trying to destroy Gadhafi’s forces, and their lines of command “before they enter the city.”  What if they’re not successful at that?  Who knows.

So now, in an effort that before the war was described largely as the imposition of a no-fly zone, American and coalition pilots are trying to destroy Gadhafi’s troops and equipment from the air, in cities, and do it without hurting any civilians.  A very complex and difficult environment indeed.

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