WEST BLOOMFIELD TOWNSHIP, Michigan — The 30-plus square miles sprinkled with endless pristine lakes, well-kept homes, and tidy streets that make up West Bloomfield Township can only be described as the perfect illustration of what an Oakland County suburb looks like. A few years ago, it was one of the most reliable suburbs for Republican candidates in the state, and a few weeks ago, races up and down the ballot in this county were supposed to be a bloodbath for the Michigan Republican Party. State Rep. Ryan Berman, the Republican incumbent who represents this area, was supposed to be a dead man walking. His expected loss was going to help flip the Republican state House majority here blue for the first time since the 2008 elections.
Except, the bloodbath never happened.
Democrats thought they were going to get all of this township to win the state House seats. Instead, the voters split their decision.
Drive through this township, and you quickly find it is the quintessential aspirational suburb: upscale, diverse, filled with a vibrant Jewish population, middle-class black people, and growing Chaldean and Indian populations.
Many of those people migrated out of Detroit in decades past, moving up and out as their careers became more successful, leaving for better schools, better government services, and a better life.
Berman beat back Democratic challenger Julia Pulver, a nurse, by getting 51.9% to her 46.5%. If you paid attention to the race, it was easy to see who had the better message for these suburban achievers: She ran on a public option healthcare platform, and her win could have helped give Democrats more control in Lansing, the state capitol. Berman ran on the economy, law and order, auto insurance reform, and education. His message was not overtly partisan and reflected his district’s values.
Going into Election Day, Democrats were confident they were on the road to flip four suburban state House seats held by Republicans en route to flipping the GOP’s 58-52 majority. But as of this Tuesday afternoon, with two races still too close to call, Michigan Republicans have already secured 57 seats.
The blue wave that Democrats thought would mean landslide victories up and down the ballot across the country never came here to Oakland County. Republicans held two of their Michigan state House seats. Democrats did flip one state House race here in Oakland County (an open-seat contest) and several local township races.
Michigan Republican strategist Jamie Roe said Democrats had such high expectations because both Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Hillary Clinton prevailed here in the 2018 and 2016 election cycles. The GOP’s success in holding the state House majority “completely bucked conventional wisdom.”
It didn’t happen an hour north in suburban Flint, where Republican challenger Dave Martin, one of the Genesee County commissioners, was supposed to get his clock cleaned by incumbent Democratic state Rep. Sheryl Kennedy. Martin seems set to win that close race in a squeaker. Kennedy won with 55% of the vote when she first ran down-ballot from Whitmer in 2018, losing 7 percentage points of support two years later.
In the 96th District in Bay County, state Rep. Brian Elder won reelection with 56% of the vote in 2018 by running as a pro-life Democrat. Bay City, where Michigan’s thumb and the rest of the mitten meet, has historical roots in fur trading and Polish immigrants. The area is very Catholic and very pro-life. Common sentiment said that when Elder got to Lansing, he turned his back on his pro-life values. On Election Day, Elder lost to Republican Tim Beson by 14 percentage points.
The polls leading up to Election Day projected a massacre for Republicans. The final forecast from FiveThirtyEight projected Joe Biden would win the state by 8 percentage points — instead, Biden is ahead by just 2.6 points in the vote count. The result is 1 point tighter for Sen. Gary Peters, who beat Republican challenger John James.
There are two takeaways from what happened in Michigan.
First, voters rejected the not-so-subtle give-me-more-power argument that Whitmer made in her campaigning for state House candidates. While the statewide elections narrowly went for Democrats, voters maintained the Republican state House majority as a check on Whitmer.
Second, Whitmer and state Democrats have to wonder if this is a step backward for their party and their push for control. The results seem to be a message from voters on how Michigan Democrats have managed the pandemic and their heavy emphasis on national politics and power rather than local politics and governing.
