Jon Ossoff’s strong finish in Tuesday’s special House election in Georgia should juice Democratic fundraising and boost candidate recruitment, imperatives for the party to challenge Republicans for control of Congress in 2018.
The 30-year-old former congressional aide fell short of 50 percent and winning the suburban Atlanta 6th district outright, providing the GOP a measure of comfort. Karen Handel, who emerged in second from a crowd of Republicans, is favored to win the June 20 runoff.
But Ossoff garnered 48.3 percent in a reliably red seat held by the GOP since 1979. That equaled President’s Trump November tally in Georgia 6, and surpassed Hillary Clinton’s performance by 1.5 percentage points.
Coming so close, in the kind of upscale, educated suburban district Democrats must win in the midterm to put a dent in the Republican majorities, should throw more fuel on a progressive brush fire that has been burning in opposition to Trump.
It provides Democratic leaders with fresh evidence to argue that the House is in play. That will help them entice quality individuals to run for office and encourage liberal donors, from those who contribute small amounts online to the wealthy check writers, to open their wallets.
“It’s huge for fundraising and recruitment, and that’s important to stretching map,” said a Republican operative, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “So many close races next year will depend on what kind of candidate both sides have.”
Beyond these immediate benefits, it’s too early to tell if the results in Georgia foreshadow a tough midterm for the Republicans.
Trump’s job approval ratings might rise by this time next year. Even if Trump remains a polarizing figure, he might accomplish healthcare reform and a major tax overhaul, motivating Republican voter to show up at the polls and protect their party’s majorities.
And, in the immediate, the fact remains that Ossoff failed to “flip the 6th” to quote his campaign’s rallying cry.
That’s despite running against a crowded field of Republicans that spent most of the time fighting each other, rather than him, and raising more than $8.3 million, while benefiting from millions more that poured in from liberal groups.
The Republicans avoided the kind of political earthquake that might have sent them scrambling to distance themselves from Trump, depressed their fundraising and dampened recruiting efforts for the House and Senate, where the party could make real gains next year.
Winning a competitive special House election in the midst of a president’s low approval ratings, as Republicans did last week, often injects a party with extra confidence that it can thrive under difficult circumstances.
That summed up the mindset of senior Republicans in the hours after the Georgia 6 runoff got underway.
“Dems failed in Kansas and are now failing in Georgia. Great job Karen Handel! It is now Hollywood vs. Georgia on June 20th,” Trump said in a tweet that he posted on Wednesday.
The president was referring to last week’s special House election in central Kansas.
The Republican candidate won that race, but underperformed against his Democratic opponent. The special election to fill Montana’s vacant at-large House seat, on May 25, could be another dogfight for the GOP.
Republican groups, like the National Republican Congressional Committee and Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., are already involved in the race in Montana, a state won handily by Trump in November.
That factor has Democrats feeling even better about the results in Georgia.
“We have a lot of wind at our back,” said Tom Perez, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, in an interview with CNN’s Chris Cuomo. “The progressive energy out there is palpable.”
